Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
235 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2000

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WERE THE MAIN FORECAST
ITEMS ON WHICH TO FOCUS THIS MORNING. LATEST 88D IMAGE SHOWS MCS
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NICE 85H
LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KTS AND INTO THETA-E RIDGE PER LAPS DATA.

WILL AGAIN LEAN TWD THE ETA SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE SFC BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE NGM/ETA...THANKS TO ONGOING
CONVECTION. WHILE BOUNDARY WILL BE LURKING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NRN
OK/SRN KS...ONCE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS SE KS BETWEEN 18Z TUES
AND 00Z WED...FEEL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH. THUS WILL
CONTINUE LATEST FORECAST IDEA OF CONFINING PCPN CHANCES TO MORNING
FOR CNTRL/SC ZONES AND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SE KS. AS
FOR TEMPS...FEEL TODAY MAY BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN THAT CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIN...BUT WITH OUTFLOW DOMINATED AIR IN PLACE WILL GO
BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION TONIGHT...BUT WE STILL REMAIN IN
NW FLOW.  DESPITE THESE RISING HEIGHTS...WILL CONTINUE PCPN CHANCES
FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ETA HINTS AT WEAK 5H THERMAL TROF SLIDING
THROUGH EASTERN KS TUESDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE.
SECOND...WHILE MAIN 85H BAROCLINC ZONES SHIFTS NORTH INTO NRN KS...
WEAK THETA-E RIDGE/WAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
FINALLY...WITH EASTERN KS STAYING IN RR QUAD OF UPPER JET...UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN NRN ZONES CLOSEST TO BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

WILL AGAIN CONFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MORNING HOURS WED AS
UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST AND ETA/AVN AGREE THAT WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE
PUSHES INTO MISSOURI BY 00Z THUR. AVN MUCH STRONGER THAN ETA/NGM
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN NW FLOW...AND BRINGS MAIN FRONT
SOUTH INTO SRN KS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...SO WILL LEAN TWD ETA/S
IDEA OF KEEPING MAIN WAVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WARMER FWC/COOLER FAN NUMBERS.

SAME STORY FOR WED NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX RIDES
DOWN NW FLOW...WHICH PUSHES BOUNDARY BACK INTO NRN OK/SRN KS. THIS
ALLOWS 85H THETA-E RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN TO BE IN ERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
85H BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL

ICT   90  72  93  72 /  60  30  30  40
HUT   89  72  92  72 /  60  30  30  40
EWK   90  72  93  72 /  60  30  30  40
EQA   90  72  93  72 /  60  30  30  40
WLD   91  72  93  72 /  60  30  30  40
RSL   87  70  91  70 /  20  50  30  30
GBD   87  70  91  70 /  20  50  30  30
SLN   89  72  92  72 /  30  50  30  30
MPR   89  72  92  72 /  40  50  30  30
CFV   8g7  73  91  72 /  80  30  30  40
CNU   87  73  91  72 /  80  30  30  40
K88   87  73  91  72 /  80  30  30  40

.ICT...NONE.