Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT SUN JUL 16 2000

MAX TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE FCST FOCUS.

WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON AN ETA 1000-850 THICKNESS FCST FOR TODAY
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA/S SFC/850 BOUNDARY FCST THROUGH 48
HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH A WEAK WAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF COLORADO THIS
AM. THE REMAINS OF NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TOWARD KS BUT EXPECT THIS TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA TODAY.
LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS COOL FRONT NOW MAKING A MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH 850 FRONT LAGGING ACROSS NE WY.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY/S VALUES.  ONLY DRAWBACK FOR AIR TEMPS COULD
BE VEIL OF CIRRUS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE MAX TEMP FCST FOR
TODAY...WHICH AGREE WITH NGM MOS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND SOME AREAS MAY FLIRT WITH INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

WX FINALLY GETS INTERESTING TONIGHT AS SFC/850 BOUNDARY COMBINE
SAGGING INTO NORTHERN KS. MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF BOUNDARIES ALONG
WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL ACT AS FORCING FOR STORMS WHICH ORIGINATE
ACROSS SE WY/NE CO AND ROLL EAST THIS EVENING. UPPER DIV WILL
SUPPORT ANY STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LLJ
EXPECT A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS.  WILL GO AROUND WETBULB
TEMPS FOR CENTRAL KS MINS WHILE KEEPING ALL OTHER AREAS VERY MILD IN
THE MID 70S.

BY MONDAY...SFC BOUNDARY POSITION WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. LEANING TOWARD A
SOUTHERN KS POSITION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND WILL UP POPS BASED ON
THIS THINKING.  WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S CENTRAL AND KEEP
LOWER 90S SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN MID LVL SKIES AT LEAST
ALONG WITH SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS WHICH IS REASONING
FOR COOLER MAX TEMPS.

PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY SUPPORTS
CONTINUED MENTION OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THE MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NEXT WAVE IN
NW FLOW TAKES AIM LATER TUES.  WITH AN EASTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT
INTO TUES WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMP FCST.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 11/OMITT
ICT  102  75  92  70 /   0  30  50  50
HUT  103  75  91  70 /   0  30  50  50
EWK  101  75  91  70 /   0  30  50  50
EQA  101  75  92  70 /   0  30  50  50
WLD  101  75  94  70 /   0  30  50  50
RSL  101  68  89  68 /   5  50  40  30
GBD  102  69  88  69 /   5  50  40  30
SLN  102  69  89  69 /   5  50  40  30
MPR  102  69  90  69 /   5  50  40  30
CFV   99  74  93  70 /   0  20  50  50
CNU   99  74  93  70 /   0  20  50  50
K88   99  74  92  70 /   0  20  50  50
w
.ICT...NONE.