Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000

FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN MAX TEMPS
BEYOND...

AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE AM LEANING TOWARD AN ETA
SOLUTION WITH BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS THROUGH 24 HOURS.

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WAVE TRIGGERING CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SIMPLY LEAVE GOING FCST ALONE...WILL GO 60 TO 65 FOR
MINS ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT EASTERN KS BY MIDDAY
WITH PTSUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
ONCE AGAIN AND WITH 700 TEMPS STILL UNIMPRESSIVE FOR CAPPING...AND
BOUNDARIES IN AREA CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS FIRING ALONG ANY
BOUNDARIES.  AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE GOING FCST OF SLIGHT CHCS
TOMORROW ALL AREAS AND FEEL THAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 80S SE.  CURRENT FCST ALSO HANDLES A SECONDARY WAVE WITH
A 500MB COOL POOL FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH 700MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED TO
BE LESS THAN 10C...FEEL THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF NIGHTTIME STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POPS ALONE.

ONCE WE HIT SATURDAY...FEELING IS THAT ANY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A VERY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON WITH THE PROCESS OF 700
MB WAA FINALLY PROGGED TO REACH 11-12C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A
RESULT...FEEL THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE EARLY WITH A LID TO BE PLACED
ON THE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON.  THIS IS THE CURRENT THINKING AND
WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDS...BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON
LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN
THE DETAILS.  WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A HOT AND HUMID FCST WITH NO
MENTION OF PRECIP BEYOND SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.  RING OF FIRE REGIME
SHOULD BE IN PLACE KEEPING CONVECTION WEST NORTH AND EAST OF AREA.

FCSTID = 11/CO
ICT   63  86  68  94 /  40  20  20  20
HUT   63  86  68  95 /  40  20  20  20
EWK   63  86  68  94 /  40  20  20  20
EQA   63  86  68  94 /  40  20  20  20
WLD   63  86  68  94 /  40  20  20  20
RSL   62  87  67  96 /  60  20  20  20
GBD   62  87  67  96 /  60  20  20  20
SLN   62  87  67  96 /  60  20  20  20
MPR   63  86  67  95 /  60  20  20  20
CFV   62  82  68  90 /  30  30  20  20
CNU   62  82  68  90 /c  30  30  20  20
K88   62  81  68  90 /  30  30  20  20

COORD TOP
.ICT...NONE.