Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000

FCST PROBLEMS CENTER ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TEMPS.

MORNING UPR AIR ANALYSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...PROFILERS
SUGGEST A WEAK VORT LOBE IS MOVG EWD OUT OVER CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS THIS
PM CAUSING SOME MID LVL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. UPSTREAM, WATER VAPOR
SUGGESTS MORE ENERGY MOVG EWD THRU NRN NM. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 65 KT
UPR JET MAX IS TARGETED FOR SRN KS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD AID IN UPR
DIVERGENCE. WITH LEE TROF OVER SRN HI PLAINS, CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIATE THIS PM/EVE IN THAT AREA AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL
AND SRN KS TONIGHT AS 850-700 WAA INCREASES VIA SWRLY LOW LVL JET.
ETA MAY SUFFER SLIGHTLY FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SERN KS AT 12Z SAT, HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN
MVC EVOLVE IN SERN KS WHERE HIEST PRECIPITABLE WATER/STRONGEST
THETA-E ADVECTION ARE TARGETED. WL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS S-CNTRL/SERN
KS WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES. LACK OF A SIGNFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY OR
LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR, HOWEVER ETA/NGM
SUGGEST PERSISTENT 850 THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SERN KS FOR A
PROLONGED PD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW IN
THIS REGION FROM RECENT RAINS. RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FROM NCEP AS OF 18Z HAS SERN KS OUTLOOKED FOR POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS TONIGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS SGF/TUL, WL ISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. NGM/ETA WOULD INDICATE CONTINUED THREAT FOR MORNING
PCPN IN SERN KS WITH SHORTWAVE STILL PROGRESSING THRU.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER. WL RETAIN A SLT CHC FOR T-STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT
IN THE PM.

BEST CHC FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT APPEARS TO OUR NORTH IN NEBRASKA
PER DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD PROPAGATE
DOWN INTO NRN KS LATE BASED ON CORFIDI VECTORS. SLT CHC POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE. BETTER CHANCE OF T-STORMS AND POTENTIALLY HVY RAIN SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH LATEST AVN AND 60 HR ETA SUGGEST
WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 850
DWPTS OF 15 TO 17C ARE INDICATED TO POOL ALONG AND N OF FRONT WITH
GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG BNDRY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH PERSISTENCE PROBABLY
BEST. TEMPS A BIT MORE TRICKY SUNDAY AND DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING
INTO CNTRL KS. WARMEST READINGS COULD END UP IN SRN ZONES. WL USE A
BLEND OF FWC/FAN AREAWIDE AS AVN MAY BE A BIT COOL.

EXTENDED PD...60 HR ETA/60-72 HR AVN INDICATE COLD FRONT MAY BE SLOW
TO PUSH THRU FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AVN LINGERS FRONT
IN AREA EARLY MONDAY AS WELL WHICH MAY IMPLY CONVECTION POTENTIAL
EARLY MONDAY. FOR NOW, WL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF CHC T-STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
FILTER IN WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT LATER MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
LATEST MRF/ECMWF/CANADIAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON UPR PATTERN
WED/THUR WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS UNDER WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. WL CARRY
DRY FCST UNTIL CLEAR SIGNS OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO FCST AREA.

FCSTID = 9/CARUSO
ICT   72  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  30
HUT   71  91  71  92 /  50  20  20  30
EWK   72  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  30
EQA   72  89  72  89 /  50  30  20  30
WLD   72  89  73  89 /  50  30  20  30
RSL   68  93  67  90 /  30  20  20  40
GBD   69  93  67  90 /  30  20  20  40
SLN   71  92  71  90 /  30  20  20  40
MPR   71  91  71  90 /  30  20  20  40
CFV   72  87  73  89 /  50  30  20  30
CNU   71  87  72  89 /  50  30  20  30
K88   72  87  72  89 /  50  30  20  30

.ICT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN KS FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
KSZ069>072...KSZ093>096...KSZ098>100.

KSZ032-232315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485 DOES NOT INCLUDE RUSSELL
COUNTY KANSAS.

KED