Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
404 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000

TNGT:
BIG CHGS IN ATMOSPHERE DURG THE NGT.  MSTR SHUD BE FLYING BACK INTO
AREA AFT SS.  BIG DIFFERENCE BTWN TNGT AND PREV SYS...LESS INSTBY
AND SHEAR.  PREFER ETA WITH BOTH LLVL MSTR AND ALSO EMBEDDED WK
SHRTWVS WHICH ARE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS.  OF NOTE ETA APPRS
TO HAVE PROBLEMS IN FIRST 12HRS WITH CIRCULATION NR SLC AT 19Z...BUT
LOOKS OK BY 06Z.  MAIN DIFFERENCE FM PREV RUNS IS THAT MSTR AXIS IS
FARTHER W. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE UPR DIFFLUENCE SHUD ALLOW
NUMEROUS TSRA TO DVLP...LKLY BFR MIDNGT IN WRN SXNS AND OVR ENTIRE
AREA BY 12Z.  MARGINAL INSTBY AND LESS THAN OPTIMAL SHEAR SUG HAIL
SIZE SHUD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.  WL LKLY BUMP MINS UP A FEW MORE
DEG WITH 60F DEWPTS ALREADY IN TUL AT 18Z...AHD OF ETA BNDRY LYR
PROG.

FRI-SAT:
AS LEAD SHRTWV DEPARTS AND DRIER MID LVL AIR MOVS INTO RGN.  HOWEVER
SHARP DRYLN IS PROGD JUST W OF FCST AREA AT 12Z AND PROGD TO MOVE
ACR THE AREA DURG THE DAY WITH MAIN UPR WAVE.  FCST SNDGS AND INSTBY
FIELDS SUG A MUCH BTR CHC OF SVR THAN DURG NGT.  HOWEVER MUCH OF
THIS COULD CHG DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE TNGT.  WL ALSO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FCST AS WRN HALF COULD BE DRY SLOTTED IN THE AFTN.  WL
TWEAK DATABASE TO SHOW DECRG CLDS IN THE AFTN IN WRN SXNS.  SUSPECT
PCPN WL BE GONE AND CLDS DISPTG BY SAT AS WOUND UP LO LIFTS NEWD.
WL BE BATTLE OF DNSLP VS COLD AIR ADVCTN FOR MAXES.

SUN-WED:
RESONABLE AGREEMENT BTWN ECMWF-MRF UNTIL TUE-WED WHEN THEY DIVERGE
ON GULF AK LOW.  LIKE ECMWF IDEA OF MORE THAN ONE PIECE OF ENERGY
COMING OUT.  THIS LEADS TO LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE PAT OVR
CONUS.  RESULT WL BE SLGT CHGS IN TIMING OF PCPN...GENERALLY FASTER
THAN PREV PROGD.  WL ALSO INTRO SLGT CHC OF PCPN ON WED AS ECMWF
SHOWS SFC AND WK SHRTWV MOVING ACRS RGN.  SOME QUESTION AS TO AMT OF
GULF MSTR...BUT HAS NOT BEEN A PROBLEM OF LATE.  TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY SUN-MON IN SW FLOW AHD OF SFC LO...WITH SLGTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUE...BUT LKLY STILL ABV NORMALS.  ANOTHER REBOUND ON WED AHD OF
NXT SYS.

FCSTID = 17/HOWERTON
ICT   55  61  37  58 /  70  60  10   0
HUT   55  61  37  56 /  70  60  10   0
EWK   55  61  37  56 /  70  60  10   0
EQA   55  61  37  58 /  70  60  10   0
WLD   55  62  38  58 /  70  60  10   0
RSL   52  60  35  53 /  60  50  10   5
GBD   54  60  36  53 /  60  50  10   5
SLN   53  60  36  53 /  60"  50  10   5
MPR   55  60  37  55 /  60  50  10   5
CFV   58  64  38  61 /  60  80  10  10
CNU   58  63  38  60 /  60  80  10  10
K88   58  62  38  59 /  60  80  10  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047-048-050-250500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE AREA OF SEVEARE THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR RUSSELL...BARTON AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  ELLSWORTH AND RICE COUNTIES
ARE INCLUDED IN WATCH NUMBER 51.

NRR

KSZ048>053-067>069-082-083-091>093-250545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR SKYWARN
SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED AT 146.82 AND 145.13
MHZ.

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