Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Hanford, CA

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2000

MODELS SIMILAR IN SHORT TERM EVENTS. BOTH ETA AND AVN DEVELOP A
FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX OVER SOCAL LATER TODAY AND MOVE IT NW INTO
CENTRAL CA LATE TONIGHT AND TUES. THETA-E VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
TUES OVER 340K WITH K INDEX OVER 40. WILL MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE SIERRA. FOR THE VALLEY...THE MESO ETA SHOWS A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING IN BY 12Z TUES. X-SECTION OF OMEGA SHOWS
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING AT 700 MB AND ABOVE SO CANT RULE OUT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. WILL CONT LOW
CHANCE POPS HERE AND IN THE DESERTS. ON TUES NITE...MODELS SHOW SOME
VEERING OF THE UPPER WIND FIELD TO THE SW...AND THIS WILL BEGIN A
DRYING TREND FOR THE MTNS/DESERTS. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS RESPECTIVELY...BUT DRY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC FOR TUES AND WILL BE VERY CLOUD COVER DEPENDENT. MOS
NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WILL UNDERCUT. MORE
SUNSHINE WED COULD OFFSET THICKNESS COOLING SO WILL NOT INDICATE
MUCH CHANGE FROM TUES...MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGS LOWER.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING PROBLEMS...THOUGH
ALL AGREE THAT A BIG CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING. THE MRF IS THE FASTEST
MODEL IN DROPPING AN INSIDE SLIDER OUT OF THE GULF AK AND KICKING
THE CUTOFF LOW INLAND FRI AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE. THE EURO AND
NOGAPS MUCH WEAKER WITH SHORTWAVE. MAIN LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS FROM
THE INSIDE SLIDER SAT ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE MRF HAS THE
AXIS INLAND. SINCE MODELS TYPICALLY TRY TO EJECT CLOSED LOWS TOO
FAST...WILL TREND TO THE WEAKER/SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF NOGAPS AND THE
EURO MODELS. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF CENTRAL CA FRI
AND SAT. THOUGH IF THE MRF IS RIGHT...COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE SIERRA AND VALLEY FRI AND IN THE SIERRA SAT. WHICHEVER MODEL
SOLUTION IS CORRECT...ALL AGREE THAT TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND PASSES FRI/SAT AS WELL AS THE DESERTS.     BINGHAM
FAT 3310 BFL 33-0 YNP 5543

.HNX...NONE.

FAT EU 070/092 066/090 061 85331
BFL EU 072/092 066/091 061 8533-
YNP TE 061/081 057/080 054 85554

CAZ089>099-290600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
440 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2000

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS...AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE AND THE SOUTH
END OF THE VALLEY.

PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF
CALIFORNIA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS USING
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR THEIR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE.

BINGHAM