Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2000

ONGOING SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD EVENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS.  LEADING EDGE OF STORMS PRODUCING THE SEVERE ARE
LINED UP MAINLY EAST-WEST WITH STEERING WINDS PARALLEL.  CONCERN IS
THAT LINE MAY SLOW DOWN WITH MERGERS AND TRAINING A DISTINCT
PROBABILITY.  TIMING WILL BRING HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS MOST OF HOUSTON
METRO AREA DURING THE RUSH HOUR ONCE AGAIN. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINS WITH ISOLATED TOTALS ABOVE 5 INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL
REISSUE WATCH FOR MOST OF CWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF CLL- CONROE-
LIBERTY LINE.

AFTER TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WALLOWING ABOUT SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
ARKANSAS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AS NEXT TROF APPROACHES
WEST US. IF MODELS RIGHT...UPPER SUPPORT NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE
AFTER TONIGHT AND BECOMING CONFLUENT BY SATURDAY.  TRACK RECORD OF
MODELS ON THIS FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN OUTSTANDING.  WILL LEAVE CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN LEAVE OUT SUN-TUE AS RIDGE
BUILDING OUT OF MEXICO SHOULD STRENGTHEN CAP OVER US.

BRISK ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MARINE
FORECAST CARRYING EXERCISE CAUTION.

.KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NONE.

30 ET AL

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 065/087 068/087 068 6433
IAH BB 066/087 070/087 070 7433
GLS BB 072/081 072/081 072 7433

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-050000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2000

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRENHAM...
CONROE...LIVINGSTON LINE THROUGH 7 PM...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE PRIMARY THREAT
TIME IS FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM. HEAVY RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 105.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...STATIONARY FRONT...AND MOIST GULF
AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MID-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO FAVOR STORMS THAT MOVE SLOWLY AND OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 105...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH FOR METRO HOUSTON...
WITH SOME SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA TODAY FOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS...UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

31/JWZ

GMZ335-355-TXZ177>179-198>200-212>214-227-237-238-050000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
150 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. COUNTIES
IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE...
SAN JACINTO...WALKER...GALVESTON...WALLER...POLK...HARRIS...
MONTGOMERY...GRIMES...BRAZORIA...LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...AND FORT BEND.

MARINE AREAS INCLDUE GALVESTON BAY AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA TODAY FOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS...UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.