Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2000

MINI-SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WRN CWA AT
EARLY AFTERNOON...ONE OF WHICH PRODUCED AN APPARENT TORNADO AND
DAMAGE IN COLORADO COUNTY EARLIER. SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE
POPS TONIGHT/MON... TEMPS TUE/WED...POPS THU...AND TEMPS FRI-SUN.

THE 12Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS THE AVN BLASTING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST QUICKLY...
WITH THE ETA/NGM SOLUTION A MORE SEDATE PUSH. PREFER THE ETA/NGM
SOLUTION BASED ON THE FRONT'S SLOW PROGRESS...LACK OF STRONG
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT...AND ALREADY E-W ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
WEST OF SJT...INDICATING IT'S NEARING THE END OF SWD PROGRESS. ONCE
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK MOVE EWRD THE FRONT SHOULD
ACCELERATE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE AVN.

EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL RETAIN MOST OF CURRENT
FORECAST IN THIS REGARD. THE LATEST ETA/NGM INDICATE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SERN TX AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...SO
WILL EXTEND SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH
SLOWER CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. SIMILARLY...MON NIGHT TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY NOT DROP AS FAR AS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO WILL BOOST
SOME. HOWEVER...WILL STICK WITH CLOSE TO PAST PATH OF SHADING AWAY
FROM THE TOO WARM FWC AFTER FROPA...THEN AVOIDING THE TOO COLD FAN
ON RETURN FLOW WARMUP.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...THU STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
FRONT/POPS....THEN SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.KHGX...SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL BAYS AND GULF WATERS.

31/47/48

PRELIMS...
CLL EU 045/050 035/056 037 +20
IAH EU 050/055 040/059 038 930
GLS WB 062/062 048/0@57 047 840

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ164-177>179-197>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
130500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 803 FOR MOST
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 11 PM. THIS WATCH REPLACES THE EARLIER
TORNADO WATCH. COUNTIES THE WATCH AREA INCLUDE:

AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON...
GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

31/JWZ

TXZ163-176-195-196-122320-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2000

...FOUR COUNTIES CLEARED FROM TORNADO WATCH...

TORNADO WATCH 802 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BURLESON...BRAZOS...MADISON...AND HOUSTON COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARED FROM ALL TORNADO WATCHES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF
CALDWELL...BRYAN...COLLEGE STATION...MADISONVILLE...AND CROCKdETT.

NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THESE COUNTIES THE REST OF
TONIGHT.

31/JWZ