Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2000

MINI-SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WRN CWA AT
EARLY AFTERNOON...ONE OF WHICH PRODUCED AN APPARENT TORNADO AND
DAMAGE IN COLORADO COUNTY EARLIER. SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE
POPS TONIGHT/MON... TEMPS TUE/WED...POPS THU...AND TEMPS FRI-SUN.

THE 12Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS THE AVN BLASTING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST QUICKLY...
WITH THE ETA/NGM SOLUTION A MORE SEDATE PUSH. PREFER THE ETA/NGM
SOLUTION BASED ON THE FRONT'S SLOW PROGRESS...LACK OF STRONG
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT...AND ALREADY E-W ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
WEST OF SJT...INDICATING IT'S NEARING THE END OF SWD PROGRESS. ONCE
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK MOVE EWRD THE FRONT SHOULD
ACCELERATE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE AVN.

EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL RETAIN MOST OF CURRENT
FORECAST IN THIS REGARD. THE LATEST ETA/NGM INDICATE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SERN TX AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...SO
WILL EXTEND SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH
SLOWER CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. SIMILARLY...MON NIGHT TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY NOT DROP AS FAR AS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO WILL BOOST
SOME. HOWEVER...WILL STICK WITH CLOSE TO PAST PATH OF SHADING AWAY
FROM THE TOO WARM FWC AFTER FROPA...THEN AVOIDING THE TOO COLD FAN
ON RETURN FLOW WARMUP.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...THU STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
FRONT/POPS....THEN SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.KHGX...SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL BAYS AND GULF WATERS.

31/47/48

PRELIMS...
CLL EU 045/050 035/056 037 +20
IAH EU 050/055 040/059 038 930
GLS WB 062/062 048/0@57 047 840

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2000

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT...

MOIST GULF AIR...A STRONG JETSTREAM...AND A COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...
TURNING WIND DIRECTION AS ALTITUDE INCREASES...AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INDICATES STORMS MAY PASS OVER THE
SAME AREA...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL RUNOFF QUICKLY SINCE
THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 45. THIS INCLUDES HUNTSVILLE...BRYAN...COLLEGE STATION...
CONROE...METRO HOUSTON...GALVESTON...BRENHAM...COLUMBUS AND WHARTON.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 1
INCH...WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING 2 TO 3 INCHES.

AFTER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END MONDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD...DRY AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE SOUTH.
MAKE PLANS NOW TO COVER OR BRING IN DELICATE PLANTS.

CHECK BACK WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST...STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

31/JWZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
135 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 802 FOR MOST
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 7 PM. COUNTIES THE WATCH AREA INCLUDE:

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

LEON...MILAM AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES IN CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ALSO
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AREA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

31/JWZ