Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
248 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2000

RAINFALL AND POPS ARE THE FIRST MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND RUNNING CLOSE BEHIND.  THE COLD
FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GGG TO ACT TO JCT
AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE 00Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

ON THE LARGE SCALE THE LONG WAVE CHART SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
OVER SETX FROM THE EAST.  THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED ON THE 500...300...
AND 200 MB LEVELS.  THE 850 MB AND SURFACE FRONTS WERE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MILES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AVN AND ETA SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SETX TONIGHT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 07 AND 10Z.  NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES FOR SETX AS OPPOSED TO THOSE AREAS
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
VERY GOOD PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND IT MAY GET OFF THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BEFORE THE UPPER COAST.  ALSO...MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT AS SHOWN BY THE PW FORECAST IS MORE SIGNIFICANT OVER
NE TX AND AREAS SOUTHWEST OF SETX.  RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD...WITH
THE MOS OUTPUT INDICATING 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES.  BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD FALL 20 DEGREES BELOW
LAST NIGHT/S READINGS ALONG WITH SOME BRISK WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SCENARIO WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE IAH/HOU ZONE GROUP...
THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE.  ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO CLEAR AFTER THE 850 MB TROUGH PUSHES
OVERHEAD...WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR ALONG THE COAST UNTIL MID MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AGAIN THE FWC LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD.

THE NEXT ITEM TO CONSIDER ARE TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER PERIODS.
GIVEN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COOL AIR TODAY...AM INCLINED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE MOS OUTPUT THAN YESTERDAY.  THE AIRMASS CONTAINING 40S
AND 50S UP IN THE NORTHERN PORTION PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE
MODIFIED HERE.  IN ANY EVENT...TOMORROW WILL BE A CHILLY DAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE MONTH...AUTUMN HAS ARRIVED FOR THE TIME BEING.
A WARMUP BEGINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS...WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE BAYS 0 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE.  EXPECT THE FRONT OFF
GLS BY 10Z...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ALL GMZ/S
MONDAY.

.KHGX...SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS
        SCA 00 TO 20 NM HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.

PL-40
38

PRELIMS...
CLL BU 059/075 051/079 051 710
IAH BU 064/076 051/080 052 620
GLS EU 070/074 061/076 062 530

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-251100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
525 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2000

...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

THIS EVENING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AFFECTING THE CITIES OF COLLEGE STATION...
MADISONVILLE AND CROCKETT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT....AND THEN APPROACH THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS JUST BEFORE
DAWN. THIS FRONT WILL USHER GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT CAN BE
EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S COMPARED TO THE HUMID
90S THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY LATE MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY BE
ONLY IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL APPROACH RECORD MINIMUMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING COLLEGE STATION WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS...
COOL NIGHT AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO FIND MORE INFORMATION
ON OUR WEBSITE WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-251100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
553 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2000

...FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. AT 5 PM...THE FRONT WAS ALONG A COLLEGE STATION TO
MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT LINE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN APPROACH THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING
STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

A BIG TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES AFTER THE PASSAGE.
MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S COMPARED TO THE
HUMID 90S THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY LATE MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL
PROBABLY BE ONLY IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS.

SOME COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ALL-TIME RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT IAH IS 46 DEGREES. IF IN
FACT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE MID 40S...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HOUSTON WILL HAVE RECORDED THE WARMEST AND COLDEST ALL-TIME SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES.

SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS THE STRONG FRONT NEARS THE COAST SOME TIME BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS
SOURCES FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO FIND MORE
INFORMATION ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX.