Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CDT SUN SEP 3 2000

CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING IN THE NRN ZONES AGAIN AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP OF 102-103F HAS BEEN REACHED. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...EXPECT A
REPEAT OF SAT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY LESS POP COVERAGE. MICROBURSTS ARE
AGAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS PACKAGE IS TRENDING OUT OF THE
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOMETHING NEARER NORMAL
(E.G. COOLER AND WETTER) IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS IS
COMPLICATED BY THE FIRST DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. OVERALL...PREFER THE ETA'S
IDEA OF A SLOWER COOLING/MOISTENING TREND THAN THE NGM OR AVN...
WHOSE FAN/MAV/FWC GUIDANCE REALLY DUMPS TEMPS ON TUE COMPARED TO MON
- UNLIKELY. IN THE MEDIUM TERM...PREFER TO RETAIN A WARMER/DRIER FORECAST
THAN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OR FAN/MEX GUIDANCE...BUT STILL IN THE
SAME DIRECTION.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD BREAKERS (POSSIBLY ALL-TIME HIGHS) ON
MON...WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY
NORTH HALF). SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL RECORD BREAKING TEMPS FOR THE
DATE ON TUE...AND MAYBE EVEN 1-2 SPOTS ON WED. THEN COOLER AND
TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL THU-SUN WITH POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL DISCOUNTING THE MRF'S IDEAS WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE SLIDING WWRD ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

.KHGX...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY.
        RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY.

31/47/48

PRELIMS...
CLL GG 072/110 072/106 072 322
IAH GG 075/106 074/104 073 222
GLS UU 081/099 081/096 080 111

RECORDS.../
    MON      TUE      SEPT      ALL-TIME
CLL 102/1995 102/1913 108/2000  110/1917
IAH 100/1995  98/1990 107/2000  107/1980 2000
GLS  98/1995  94/1990  98/1995  101/1932

GMZ335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT SUN SEP 3 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...RECORD SETTING DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
MERCURY SOARING INTO THE 104 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 115 EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR THE COAST MID TO UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES SLOWLY INLAND TEMPERATURES MAY DROP...HOWEVER
HUMIDITIES WILL RISE WHICH COULD INCREASE THE HEAT INDICES. WHILE
YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE IT EASY AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER!

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK OF
AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY AND MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE IN
PART TO THE EXTREME HEAT...THESE ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE DOWNBURST PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION THE DROUGHT THAT SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING
HAS DRIED LEAVES AND TREE LITTER THAT HAVE MADE VERY FLAMMABLE
FUEL MATERIAL FOR EASILY STARTED FIRES. YESTERDAY FIRES BROKE OUT
IN GRIMES AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. AS A SAFETY PRECAUTION OFFICIALS
HAVE IMPLEMENTED BURN BANS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LIGHTNING
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STARTING WILDFIRES EASILY...AND
THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL FAN THE FLAMES.
PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FIRES
AND CURTAIL ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START FIRES ESPECIALLY WHILE
OPERATING EQUIPMENT CAPABLE OF IG=NITING FIRES AND WHILE COOKING OUT.

FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT

HTTP:\TXFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU

OR BY PHONE TOLL FREE AT 1-877-258-5973.

GMZ335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT SUN SEP 3 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...RECORD SETTING DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
MERCURY SOARING INTO THE 104 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 115 EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR THE COAST MID TO UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES SLOWLY INLAND TEMPERATURES MAY DROP...HOWEVER
HUMIDITIES WILL RISE WHICH COULD INCREASE THE HEAT INDICES. WHILE
YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE IT EASY AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK OF
AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY AND MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE IN
PART TO THE EXTREME HEAT...THESE ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE DOWNBURST PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION THE DROUGHT THAT SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING
HAS DRIED LEAVES AND TREE LITTER THAT HAVE MADE VERY FLAMMABLE
FUEL MATERIAL FOR EASILY STARTED FIRES. YESTERDAY FIRES BROKE OUT
IN GRIMES AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. AS A SAFETY PRECAUTION OFFICIALS
HAVE IMPLEMENTED BURN BANS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LIGHTNING
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STARTING WILDFIRES EASILY...AND
THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL FAN THE FLAMES.
PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FIRES
AND CURTAIL ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START FIRES ESPECIALLY WHILE
OPERATING EQUIPMENT CAPABLE OF IGNITING FIRES AND WHILE COOKING OUT.

FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT

HTTP:TXFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU

OR BY PHONE TOLL FREE AT 1-877-258-5973.

GMZ335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT SUN SEP 3 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...RECORD SETTING DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
MERCURY SOARING INTO THE 104 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 115 EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR THE COAST MID TO UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES SLOWLY INLAND TEMPERATURES MAY DROP...HOWEVER
HUMIDITIES WILL RISE WHICH COULD INCREASE THE HEAT INDICES. WHILE
YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE IT EASY AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER!

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK OF
AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY AND MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE IN
PART TO THE EXTREME HEAT...THESE ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE DOWNBURST PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION THE DROUGHT THAT SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING
HAS DRIED LEAVES AND TREE LITTER THAT HAVE MADE VERY FLAMMABLE
FUEL MATERIAL FOR EASILY STARTED FIRES. YESTERDAY FIRES BROKE OUT
IN GRIMES AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. AS A SAFETY PRECAUTION OFFICIALS
HAVE IMPLEMENTED BURN BANS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LIGHTNING
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STARTING WILDFIRES EASILY...AND
THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL FAN THE FLAMES.
PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FIRES
AND CURTAIL ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START FIRES ESPECIALLY WHILE
OPERATING EQUIPMENT CAPABLE OF IGNITING FIRES AND WHILE COOKING OUT.

FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT

HTTP:\TXFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU

OR BY PHONE TOLL FREE AT 1-877-258-5973.