Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
235 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2000

SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TODAYS 12Z MODELS...BUT ANY WAY YOU WANT
TO LOOK AT IT WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS AS GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. MESO-ETA/ETA/AVN HAVE DIFFERENCES
REGARDING 850 TEMPS WITH AVN TAKING THE 24C ISOTHERM NORTH AND WEST.
ETA/MESO-ETA WHICH HAVE DONE FAIRLY WELL RECENTLY KEEPS THEM STATUS
QUO. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS IS A WEAK IMPULSE ETA
TRIES TO BRING SWD INTO N TX BY 06Z WITH AN AREA OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
IN THE WACO AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT OVER COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES SAT BUT ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGHS IS
LIKELY.

WILL LEAVE POPS IN FCST THRU SAT NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING STRONG
OMEGA FIELD EACH AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THEN PW'S FCST TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW 1.5" SUNDAY ALLOWING US TO ADD ANOTHER 1-3
DEGREES FOR AFTN HIGHS. EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY REMAIN AS IS...
HOPEFULLY SOME RELIEF TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.KHGX...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES.
        RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES.

47/37/48

PRELIMS...                        RECORDS...
                                  TMRW      SEPT      ALL-TIME
CLL GG 076/105 076/108 076 323    104/1939  106/1985  110/1917
IAH GG 079/104 079/107 079 323    101/1995  102/1985  107/1980
GLS BB 081/094 081/095 081 212     98/19T95   98/1995  101/1932

GMZ335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-020245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...
...RECORD SETTING DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

AT 330 PM THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST TEXAS.  THESE STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO KEEP MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
DUE IN PART TO THE EXTREME HEAT...THESE ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL MID EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7 PM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MORE DOWNBURST PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION THE DROUGHT THAT SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING
HAS DRIED LEAVES AND TREE LITTER THAT HAVE MADE VERY FLAMMABLE
FUEL MATERIAL FOR EASILY STARTED FIRES. BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STARTING WILDFIRES EASILY...AND THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORMS WILL FAN THE FLAMES. BECAUSE OF THIS THREAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FIRES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND CURTAIL
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START FIRES ESPECIALLY WHILE OPERATING EQUIPMENT
CAPABLE OF IGNITING FIRES.

THE EXTREME HEAT THAT HAS TIED ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS THE PAST TWO
DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 103 TO 107 EXCEPT IN THE 90S RIGHT AT
THE COAST.  HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 110 EACH AFTERNOON.

FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT C1AN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT

HTTP:\TXFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU

OR BY PHONE TOLL FREE AT 1-877-258-5973.