Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2000

WIDELY SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT AS A
RESULT OF HEATING AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS.

FOR UPCOMING PACKAGE...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE ETA MODEL
SOLN WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PW FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. WAVE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE TX COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE A SHARP PW GRADIENT
FRI WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS STILL OVER NW ZONES. EXPECT BY SATURDAY TO SEE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHC OF TSTMS FOR FAR INLAND ZONES. AT MID-LEVELS...WEAKNESS
WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX AS HIGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS
TEXAS AND BERMUDA HIGH STAYS PUT. THIS MAY CHG BY SUN...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP CHC IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT POSITION
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. MRF SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGING WITH BERMUDA HIGH RESULTING IN LARGE FLAT RIDGE OVER SE U.S.
WITH SE TX ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BY MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE GUID...ESPECIALLY NW ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE.

.HGX...NONE.

33/40

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 072/100 072/099 074 2212
IAH BB 073/096 073/095 075 2223
GLS BB 077/089 079/089 080 2234