Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
215 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2000

TSRA CONT TO FIRE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS TREND IS LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT LIES ACROSS
SE TX AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT. ALTHO THE
MDLS PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA...FEEL IT WILL HANG UP ALONG
THE COAST AND SW ZONES...AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISSIPATING
FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PIVOT NORTH ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAIN ISSUE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT. 25H AND 30H
FIELDS SHOW UPPER WIND FIELD TO REMAIN DIVERGENT THROUGH 48 HRS. SE
TX LIES IN A LFQ WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT INTO TONIGHT.
COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 5000 J/KG AND LI'S OF -6 TO -10
AND SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN HIGH. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK
WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
FEEL THIS IS NOT JUST AN EVENING EVENT AND COULD LAST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS DETAILING SEVERE THREAT BY 4 PM.

MONDAY...FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. ETA (MDL
DU JOUR) KEEPS ENOUGH MSTR IN PLACE AND WITH DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
WIND PATTERN...ANOTHER SPEED MAX AND DAYTIME HEATING...FEEL
ADDITIONAL TSRA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG RESIDUAL CONVERGENT SFC
BNDRY. STILL FEEL THERE IS A SLT CHANCE OF TSRA ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN DIVERGENT...HOWEVER MSTR LEVELS DROP OVER THE
EAST AND SFC CONVERGENCE WEAKENS MARKEDLY.

EXTENDED...UKMET/ECMWF ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE MRF WITH THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR THE END OF THE LWEEK. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SLT CHC...SO WILL KEEP THINGS AS THEY ARE.

.HGX...NONE.

43/46

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 070/096 069/096 070 322
IAH BB 071/095 070/096 071 632
GLS BB 077/090 078/090 079 532