Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2000

THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SW PART OF CWFA
BECOMING SEVERE. IR LOOP SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (-65 TO -73 DEG
C). THIS AREA HAS VERY HIGH MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES PROBABLY
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR SPINNING STORMS. SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER MUCH OF CWFA
(EXCEPT EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES) TIL 13Z.

AVN/NGM/ETA IN CLOSE AGREEMENT MOVING MAJOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT HAPPENING RIGHT NOW BUT STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WAFFLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA TODAY...RETREAT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. STRONG FRONT
TO MOVE ACROSS REGION DAYTIME MONDAY DROPPING TEMPS TO THE 40S
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PWS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
TRAINING (UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY)...HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT (IF WIDESPREAD) MAY CALL FOR AN FFA.

37/46

.KHGX.l..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #142 FOR ALL EXCEPT BURLESON...BRAZOS
        ...MADISON... AND HOUSTON COUNTIES.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 069/059 070/042 066 786
IAH TT 073/063 072/045 067 886
GLS TT 074/070 073/053 066 887

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CHANGED SAT TO SUN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1244 AM CST SUN APR 2 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CST (300 AM CDT)...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING HAVE
REMAINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LATEST RADAR
TREND INDICATES THE STORMS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING...AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR AUSTIN...COLORADO... JACKSON...WASHINGTON...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200 AM CST (300 AM
CDT).

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND AROUND THE VICTORIA AREA. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST AND
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER TEXAS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS MORNING IF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AREA MAY EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING MAY AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE WHERE BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO
MONITOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS MORNING AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS
SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

AS A REMINDER...DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS AT 200 AM THIS MORNING.
DO NOT FORGET TO MOVE YOUR CLOCKS AHEAD ONE HOUR. THIS WATCH EXPIRES
AT THE TIME CHANGE FROM CENTRAL STANDARD TIME TO CENTRAL DAYLIGHT
TIME.

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ164-177>179-197>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
021300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 8 AM CDT. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE
INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH...SAN JACINTO...WALKER...GALVESTON
...WALLER...POLK...HARRIS...JACKSON...MONTGOMERY...GRIMES...
COLORADO...WASHINGTON...BRAZORIA...LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...AUSTIN
...WHARTON...MATAGORDA...FORT BEND AND TRINITY.

VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN TRIGGERING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATCH AREA. ALSO...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY RAINFALL.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. VERY HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
AN HOUR IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO
MONITOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS
SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.