Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000

CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND BREAKOUT
OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MOST CWFA PAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE BASED
LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE -1 TO -4 RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CWFA...WITH LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE IN VICINITY. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING OUT OF GULF STATES PROGD BY MODELS TO PASS OVER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A LITTLE WEST OF CWFA. WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY
IN WEST. SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN
CWFA. ETA HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS IN WEST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING.

SATURDAY...TROF DIGGING INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WILL DEEPEN
AND PUSH RAPIDLY EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DYNAMICS ARE DECENT FOR
STRONG CONVECTION: LOBE OF DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
COMES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT INVADE CWFA FROM THE WEST AS TROF BEGINS LIFTING OUT WITH WEAK
SEMBLENCE OF A NEGATIVE TILT...LIFTED INDICES PROGD IN THE -4 TO -6
RANGE...DECENT SPEED SHEAR...PLUS PROXIMITY OF AREA TO UPPER JET
LEAVING A GUD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET
FOR CWFA. ETA CAPES DO CLIMB OVER 1000 IN SOUTHWEST CWFA BY TIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINS...PRECEDED BY LIKELY SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD
ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST.

GIVEN WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED UPSTREAM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS
EVOLVED...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RAPID AND DRAMATIC FOR OUR CWFA.
CONVECTION SHOULD END OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
KEEP LIKELY WORDING IN EARLY...THEN BREEZY AND COOLER...WINDY
FOR SUNDAY. FOR MOUNTAINS...85H TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C BY 06Z SUNDAY...
WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES AND
GUD BATCH OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. FORTUNATELY...WIND SATURDAYNIGHT
SHOULD PROHIBIT FREEZE CONDITIONS IN UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
850/70H THICKNESSES DROP BELOW 1520M SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MENTION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING..THEN TURNING COLDER WITH SNOW
SHOWRS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ANY PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT MAY MENTION CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

CONVECTION MAY NOT BECOME GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...QPF
LUKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF ONE INCH IN MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ONE-HALF
AND THREE-QUARTERS EAST...BUT GROUND IS VERY HARD FROM A LONG PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND RUNOFF WILL BE GREATER THAN NORMAL...AT LEAST
INITIALLY. GIVEN THAT...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION...GSP
PLANS TO ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AVL TE 051/065 034/044 028 447+6
CLT TB 059/069 043/058 033 44678
GSP TB 059/067 044/058 034 447+7

.GSP...NONE.

BURRUS

.GSP...NONE.

BURRUS