Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

CONVECTION STARTING NOW IN THE NRN MTNS/FOOTHILLS OF NC IN VERY
JUICY AIRMASS WITH LOW 70 DWPTS. ETA SHOWS LOW CENTER DEVELOPING ON
LEE TROUGH AROUND CLT BY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WRN/CENT NC WHEN CONSIDERING THE LARGE CAPES AND WIND SHEAR IN
PLACE. EXPECT STORMS MORE ON A SCATTERED BASIS ACROSS NE GA/UPSTATE
THIS EVENING. MCS DEVELOPING IN WRN TN LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MTNS
SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS WELL.

WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP OVERNIGHT BEFORE NEXT AND RATHER LARGE MCS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WRN TIER AROUND SUNRISE. COLD FRONT
TO PROGRESS ACROSS CWA SUNDAY MORNING ATTENDED BY DYING SQUALL LINE.
THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH. IN THE
ERN ZONES...IF FRONT HAS NOT PASSED THROUGH...AIRMASS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE AND SQUALL LINE COULD REFORM AS FAR WEST AS THE CLT
AREA. IN THE WEST...HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANG AROUND
AND COUPLED WITH A DIGGING SHORTWAVE/STRONG MID-UPR LEVEL JET AND
DRIER AND COOLING MID-LEVELS...CREATE AN ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.
AGAIN..THE GREATEST CHC OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE IN NC.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE UNDER CLOSED LOW WILL BE UPSLOPED INTO NC MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE CHC POP THERE. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND IN CENT NC...BUT NOT A HIGH ENOUGHT CHC TO MENTION ATTM. COLD
POOL ON MONDAY CENTERED TO THE EAST OF CWA...BUT COULD STILL HAVE
SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA IN MY ERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...THIS
ONE COOL DAY WILL BE NICE TO HAVE BEFORE THINGS HEAT UP TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED PROGS SHOW STRONG 5H RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES WED/THURS. ALTHOUGH PATTERN SUGGESTS
WE COULD BE DEALING WITH MORE MCS REMNANTS FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE
EXTENDED...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AVL 65/79/55/78/52 5722
CLT 70/85/58/79/54 4623
GSP 72/85/60/81/56 3610

.GSP...NONE.

MOYER

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-272000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

A HOT...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO CAUSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXTEND AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT FOR SOME
SECTIONS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAUSE
DAMAGING WIND STORMS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.  THE FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TODAY ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL FIRST BE IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...AND OTHERS MOVE IN FROM TENNESSEE.  IT IS THEN POSSIBLE
THAT A SQUALL LINE COULD FORM FROM THESE MOUNTAIN STORMS...AND MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA PARTS OF THE SERVICE AREA OF THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.  EVEN THERE...HOWEVER...THE SCATTERED
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

COMMUNICATION CENTER DISPATCHERS SHOULD BRIEF LOCAL OFFICIALS ON
THIS OUTLOOK STATEMENT...AND SKYWARN SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER TODAY.  SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES HAD NOT
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA AS OF LATE MORNING.

LISTEN FOR LATER INFORMATION REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...ON THIS FIRST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

JONES