Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2000

GREATER COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP OVER WESTERN APPALACHIANS
JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS AREA ALSO FORCED BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
OF JET IN OH VALLEY. WITH LAPS CAPES 2000+ AND MID LEVEL CAP
SLOWLY ERODING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD GROW OVER MTNS
THROUGH EVENING. PROFILES STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
WITH EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP LAPSES SHOWING 35+ KT GUST
POTENTIAL AND 10K FT WET BULB ZERO SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST SMALL
HAIL WILL BE PRESENT WITH THESE STORMS.

MUCH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
SWEEP QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW TONIGHT CIRCA 06Z. THIS WILL
BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOIST FLUX COVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET. STRONGLY POSITIVE AREA ABOVE THE LFC WILL PERSIST...SO WITH SUCH
DEEP LAYER LIFT THE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME SHOULD NOT BE A STRONG
LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE AND PSBL SEVERE. WILL BEEF UP WORDING
A BIT.

SFC LOW LINGERS OVER NC PIEDMONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHILE WEAK UPPER
ENERGY ASSOC WITH DPVA IN ERN TROF CONT TO AFFECT THE AREA. WILL
NEED CHC POPS THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM WITH BEST CHC
PIEDMONT SECTIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS.

WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL. ANY
MOISTURE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN AN UNFAVORABLE W TO NW FLOW.

AVL 57/76/56/76 7333
CLT 67/85/63/81 7443
GSP 65/85/60/80 7333

.GSP...NONE.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-202235-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2000

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...

DEEPENING MOISTURE...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY... AND DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S... THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG... OR
EVEN SEVERE.

AREAS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... AND THE ADJACENT NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME QUITE STRONG... BUT
PERHAPS FALLING JUST SHORT OF SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED WIND REPORTS OF MORE THAN 60 MPH... BUT WIND
PROFILES EARLY TODAY WOULD NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BURRUS