Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

SCZ001>014-019-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-GAZ010-017-018-026-028-
029-190023-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. OLD OUTFLOW HAS
LEFT A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LINE FROM HKY TO RUQ AND NORTH OF CLT.
TEMPS SOUTH OF THAT LINE UNDER BASICALLY A CLOUDLESS SKY HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S WITH CAPES OVER 4000 J/KG ALONG
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LEE TROUGH IN PLACE IN THE FOOTHILLS...SO WE
AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF MID/UPR SUPPORT WHICH APPEARS TO BE COMING
THROUGH E TN ATTM. JUST GOT WORD THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
PLACED UNDER A WATCH WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT...SO ENOUGH SAID.
WILL TAPER POPS FROM CHC IN MTNS TO LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST FOR THIS
EVENING.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS CENT GULF COAST STATES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A PLEASANT DAY FOR MOST
AREAS SATURDAY. ETA SHOWS A BLOW UP OF CONVECTION IN THE UPSTATE
SATURDAY AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BUT THERE
IS NO UPPER SUPPORT SO WILL DISCOUNT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ON
SUNDAY INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FOCUSES CONVERGENCE OVER MTNS AHEAD OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SOUTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MTNS MAY HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
WILL INCLUDE A SMALL CHC FOR THE NC MTNS FOR SUNDAY AND LEAVE
ADJACENT MTN AND FOOTHILL ZONES IN THE UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHC
CATEGORY FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SHORT RANGE.

IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BASICALLY IN CONTROL OF
ENTIRE SOUTHERN U.S. A COLD FRONT DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
SO WILL PUT IN A CHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS.

PRELIMINARY CCF...KEEP IN MIND POPS FOR FIRST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHER
THAN SHOWN BELOW.

FCSTID = 26
GSP   71  90  68  88 /  30  20  10  20
AND   70  91  67  89 /  40  20  10  20
CLT   68  88  66  86 /  50  10   0   0
HKY   67  87  65  85 /  30  10   0  10
AVL   65  85  62  82 /  30  20  20  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MOYER

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-182100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED IN THIS AIRMASS BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY STEADILY SHIFTING TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

RB