Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
230 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

KGRR-88D SHOWS A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AREA OF RAIN OVER NRN LAKE MI.
THE CWA IS DRY ATTM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME CU. BUT ENOUGH SUN HAS MADE IT THROUGH TO
SEND TEMPS INTO THE 80S. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SOUTH WINDS HAVE ADVECTED
IN DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SRN LWR. ALL OF THIS IS HELPING TO
CREATE A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
TODAY. A LOW MOVG NE FROM NRN WI INTO THE WRN UP WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THRU WRN LWR TONIGHT. FURTHER SFC HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LOT OF ENERGY FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FCST RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE CAP THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL ERODE BY
22Z-23Z. LOOK FOR TSRA TO FIRE AROUND THAT TIME...AND GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SOME OF THOSE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. UPR JET
PLACEMENT WILL PROVIDE GOOD UVV/S.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND 12Z AND THEN HANG UP
IN EXTREME SE LWR ON TUE. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ON THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND MOVG NE INTO NRN IN BY TUE AFTERNOON.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR AN INCH AND A HALF... THIS LOW
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LOT OR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
VERY STRONG UPR/LWR JET COUPLET WHICH WILL ENHANCE UVV/S. AS FOR
TIMING... CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS POINT TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE RAIN TO DEVELOP. WILL LIKELY GO DRY IN THE MORNING. WILL
INCLUDE RAIN ON TUE NIGHT BUT WILL END IT LATE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME SUN. WILL GO DECREASING CLOUDS. WILL USE A FAN/FWC
BLEND FOR TEMPS.

WF

EXTENDED FORECAST

TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRESS BUILDING IN TUE NIGHT
AND WED. 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND PASSAGE OF TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
ONLY A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSHING INTO RIDGE. LOTS OF MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN AND THE MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANY KIND OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ON THUR THE SFC HIGH SLIDES E OF MICHIGAN WITH SOME LIGHT OVER
RUNNING PCPN DVLPG OFF TO OUR NW. THIS PCPN WL JUST MISS THE CWA OFF
TO OUR NW ON THUR. ANOTHER CDFNT WL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI
BRINGING MORE SHWRS AND TSTMS. WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY
BUT THE CDFNT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON FRI CUD COME BACK AS A WRMFNT ON
SAT BRINGING WITH IT A CHC OF TSTMS. WL HAVE TO WATCH. ATTM LOOKS
LIKE THE PCPN WL FORM LT SAT JUST TO OUR N.

DGH

*** THE NWS OFFICES IN MICHIGAN ARE CONDUCTING A USER SURVEY TO LEARN
MORE ABOUT HOW THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) IS UTILIZED. PLEASE
COMPLETE THE SHORT QUESTIONNAIRE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/AFD.HTM
THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP UKS PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR
YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE
QUESTIONNAIRE PLEASE CONTACT RANDY GRAHAM AT (616) 949-0643 X766 ***

.GRR...NONE.

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
600 AM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30
TO 50 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
ANYONE LIVING NEAR SMALL CREEKS OR IN LOW AREAS THAT TEND TO POOL
WATER... SHOULD MONITOR THEIR LOCAL CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO TAKE
ACTION IF NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE PRODUCING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  ONCE THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT... MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30
TO 50 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
ANYONE LIVING NEAR SMALL CREEKS OR IN LOW AREAS THAT TEND TO POOL
WATER... SHOULD MONITOR THEIR LOCAL CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO TAKE
ACTION IF NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE PRODUCING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  ONCE THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT... MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
606 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0635 PM    BALDWIN                   MI   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/08/00   LAKE                           REPORTED BY LOCAL MEDIA

GEO