Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2000

TRYING TO INGEST ALL OF THE NEW 00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL OF SVR WX OVERNIGHT AND ALSO FLASH FLOODING.

WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IN IOWA EAST ACROSS
SRN WI THEN CURVING SE INTO WRN OH. SFC DEW PTS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ARE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE WHILE 850 MB DEWPTS OF 16-18C
ARE AIMED AT SW MI FROM THE SW. WITH MCS/S CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM AND EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...
BELIEVE IT MAY TURN INTO AN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WHILE SOME SVR WX SEEMS POSSIBLE FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN WI... IT APPEARS THIS MAY TURN INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING.

AFTER HEAVY RAINS A FEW DAYS AGO...3 HRLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES FROM THE NCRFC ARE NOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA. (1 HRLYS ARE ONLY ABOUT ONE INCH.) GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND SURFACE FRONT/THETA-E RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE AREA... WILL ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

*** THE NWS OFFICES IN MICHIGAN ARE CONDUCTING A USER SURVEY TO LEARN
MORE ABOUT HOW THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) IS UTILIZED. PLEASE
COMPLETE THE SHORT QUESTIONNAIRE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/AFD.HTM THE
FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU.
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE
QUESTIONNAIRE PLEASE CONTACT RANDY GRAHAM AT (616) 949-0643 X766 ***

.GRR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE
GRR CWFA.

MEADE

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2000

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO CREATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MANY CONTAIN LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD F2RONT INTERACTS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.  MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BDM

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
231 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 800 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OCEANA...MUSKEGON...MASON...NEWAYGO AND LAKE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     INGHAM...CLINTON...JACKSON...IONIA...CALHOUN AND EATON

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...GRATIOT...MONTCALM...MECOSTA...ISABELLA AND CLARE

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KALAMAZOO...KENT...VAN BUREN...OTTAWA...BARRY AND ALLEGAN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAsY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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