Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT SUN SEP 10 2000

COLD FRONT WAS MOVG INTO NC/C WI AT 09Z...WITH A THIN LINE OF TSTMS
JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS PRODUCED SOME SMALL HAIL
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WV IMAGERY SHOWED STG S/W ENERGY LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO WSTRN ONTARIO...SO EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO FAR NE AND EC WI.

MODELS WERE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR...BUT HAVE LEANED ON AVN FOR THIS FCST
SINCE IT HAS SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS. FRONT IS FCST TO WEAKEN AND STALL OUT OVER THE SE 1/2 OF MY
FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM NW
TO SE. NC WI SHOULD SEE A VERY PLEASANT DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
MEANWHILE...EC WI WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID...WITH TDS PUSHING 70 MOST
OF THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS AFTER THE EARLY MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS.
UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING...WITH NVA AND UPPER LVL CONVG IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...AND WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD EVENING.
LLJ CRANKS UP OVERNIGHT...AND FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...SO EXPECT
A GOOD ROUND OF STORMS MOST AREAS. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF CWA IN SLGT
RISK...AND THIS AREA DOES APPEAR PRIMED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVG
HOURS. WILL NOT PUT SVR WORDING IN ZONES YET...BUT WILL MENTION THREAT
IN MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLIDES SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET SETTING UP OVER NC/C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKELY POPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE NW 1/2 OF CWA...HIGH CHC POPS SE
1/2. THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE. HAVE HELD MAX TEMPS A BIT
BLO THEIR POTENTIAL DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

COORD WITH MKX AND DLH.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUS,CH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-091900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WARMER...MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON ON SOUTH WINDS.  TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE STATE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHCENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN NEAR MIDNIGHT...THEN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES TOWARD MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...A FEW COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHE(R INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WHENEVER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-101500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 10 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
MID-MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED THESE STORMS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT...AND SHOULD BISECT WISCONSIN FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS SOUTHEAST OF
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL START TO LIFT THE
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS AND WIND SHEAR...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
THREAT SHOULD BEGIN IN THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AFTER 5:00 PM...THEN SPREAD
TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB