Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND
132 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CWA INTO THIS EVENING...

RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO AND GOOD THETA E RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WAS PRESENT AT 18Z. DRYLINE IS
PUSHED ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE FRONT RANGE.

MOST MODELS INITIATING FAIRLY WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE ETA DOING A FAR SUPERIOR JOB IN TRACKING
LOW IN EASTERN CO OUT THROUGH 18Z. AVN IS MUCH TOO FAR NORTH AND NGM
IS TOO SHALLOW AND EXTENDS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH. WILL
DEFINITELY GO WITH THE ETA WITH ITS MUCH BETTER HANDLING AND RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS ITS NORTHEAST JOURNEY FROM
EASTERN COLORADO A DRY LINE WILL PUSH FROM EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
EAST. THIS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH A STRONG THETA E RIDGE AND AN AREA
OF STRONG CAPES THAT WERE NEAR 2000 BEFORE NOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING IN THE EAST AS H7 VORT CENTER
PUSHES THROUGH WITH STRONG ARE OF THETA E CONVERGENCE. DRY LINE IS
MORE DIFFUSE IN THE TRI STATE AREA AT THAN FARTHER SOUTH AS THETA E
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER PANHANDLE OF NE.

SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AS SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHEAST AND WINDS
COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
DURING THE DAY H85 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 6C TO 8C RANGE WITH BL DPTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. H85-H5 OMEGA FIELD WEAKEN AND WITH NOT MUCH
DYNAMIC COOLING BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. AFTER 18Z H85
TEMPS NEAR 2C AND BELOW AND LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES IN THE NE
COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SOIL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT GRADIENT LOOSENS AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C TO -6C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

AVN COMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA OUT TO 48HRS WITH THE ETA BEING
A LITTLE COOLER. THE THE UNUSUALLY WARM SOIL TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE WARMER FAN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND OUT.

MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK BUT NOT THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. MRF IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND
COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE AVN STARTING TO BRING THIS SYSTEM
DOWN. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM
AS FEEL THAT THE ECMWF IS TOO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL
BEAR SCRUTINY AS THE MORE SOUTHERLY DEEP TRACK WILL BE A GOOD SNOW
PRODUCER...AS COMPARED TO THE MRF TRACK WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
ON SATURDAY TO LEAVE MANEUVERING ROOM FOR LATER PACKAGES.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-080600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TO ADD INTRO STATEMENTS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 AM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH GULF
MOISTURE...SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE
KANSAS. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL THREATEN AREAS EAST OF THE LINE..'.
INCLUDING MCCOOK...NORTON AND HILL CITY. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

SKIPPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 PM MDT TUE MAR 07 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1128 AM    20 SW KIT CARSON          CO   .75 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   CHEYENNE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 PM MDT TUE MAR 07 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
%
1128 AM    20 SW KIT CARSON          CO   .75 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   CHEYENNE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

NEZ079>081-072300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1248 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FROM 2 PM CST (1 PM MST) UNTIL 7 PM CST (6 PM MST)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING DUNDY...HITCHCOCK
AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.

LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST IN
WEATHER INFORMATION.

SKIPPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT TUE MAR 07 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 PM    2 SW FLAGLER              CO   1 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   KIT CARSON

1233 PM    FLAGLER                   CO   2 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   KIT CARSON

1255 PM    6 SW CHEYENNE WELLS       CO   .88 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   CHEYENNE

0100 PM    CHEYENNE WELLS            CO   1 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   CHEYENNE

0105 PM    CHEYENNE WELLS            CO   1.75 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   CHEYENNE

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-072345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS FROM 3 PM CST (2 PM MST) UNTIL 9 PM CST (8 PM MST)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM 3 PM CST (2 PM MST) UNTIL 9 PM CST (8 PM MST).
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST IN
WEATHER INFORMATION.

SKIPPER