Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT SUN JUN 11 2000

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGH NEXT 48
HOURS.

18Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH AN ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL S/W IMPULSES WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ALL MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH TO OUR WEST AS WELL AS WITH
MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN UPPER FLOW. WILL GO WITH THE ETA
MODEL THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEL OF CHOICE. IT SEEMS TO BE DOING THE
BEST JOB WITH THE POSITION AND PROGGED MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS INFILTRATING THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE CAPES AND OMEGA VALUES EXPECT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ENTIRE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. A TRIGGER
FOR EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS IS A VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

ON MONDAY LEE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY LINE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CWA. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING OUT
BUT WITH GOOD HEATING BY THE JUNE SUN DYNAMICS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 7H AND 8H TEMPS WARM A GREAT DEAL WITH SURFACE TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE.

MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORTING MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL WEAK S/W IMPULSES
MOVING ACROSS CWA IN UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. WILL GO CLOSE TO AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

ON TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL A FEW DEGREES
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. APPEARS TO BE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUSND 90.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-120600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT SUN JUN 11 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE DURING THE
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 PM MDT (5
PM CDT) ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN
COLORADO.