Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MDT WED MAY 31 2000

...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS THU AND TYPE OF POSS PRECIP THU
NIGHT...

STRATUS RETREATING NORTH AND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY TODAY SO THAT ALL
OF CWA PC OR BETTER ATTM. TEMPS WARMING RAPIDLY COMPARED TO COOL AM.
CAPES RISING BUT STILL VERY STABLE ALOFT. CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS IN CO AND NEB COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT THINK REST
OF CWA STILL TOO STABLE.

ETA INITIATED BEST AT 50H WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE HT/ORIENTATION AND
ALSO AT SFC. ETA HAS DONE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR SO WILL
STICK WITH IT.

AS WARM FRONT PULLS NORTH INTO NEB THIS EVENING IT WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THEIR TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. AS S/W WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PULLS EAST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THAT STATE EXPECT
COLD FRONT TO PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT. DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN NW KS AS LITTLE CHANGE IN STABILITY ALOFT. COOL
FRONT SHOULD PASS THRU MY ENTIRE CWA BEFORE NOON THU.

MODELS SHOW LLJET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT PRIOR TO FRONT
(PASSES DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THU). UPSLOPE SETS IN
DURING DAY THU AND BY THU NIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP. ONCE AGAIN CONSIDERING ALOFT
CONDITIONS...NOCTURNAL TIMING AND FRONT TO SOUTH THINK PRECIP WILL
BE LIGHT WHERE OCCURS AND MORE OF A STABLE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER/DRIZZLE
TYPE.

FRI WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND SHOULD RETURN TO MORE PC
SITUATION. REMAINS FAIRLY MILD/WARM AS SFC HIGH TO NORTH MOVING
E/SE. SLIGHT POSS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO AREA FROM WEST.

THROUGHOUT FCST HAVE GONE MOSTLY WITH GUID TEMPS SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARDS WARMER FAN ON FRI.

IN EXTENDED BOTH ECM AND MRF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH MOD S/W
MOVING ACROSS AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY GOOD. MONDAY LOW MOVES TO SE WITH SEVERAL DAYS
OF DRYING AND WARMING SETTING IN AS RIDGE ALOFT REBUILDS FROM WEST.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

COZ092-010200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
636 PM MDT WED MAY 31 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW OF WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM MDT...

AN OUTFLOW OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WERE MOVING NORTH AND WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY THIS EVENING. AT
TIMES STRONG SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM MDT.

TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER LOOSE
OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.  HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW
WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...AND DOWN POWER LINES.

&&

VPAPOL\