Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND TEMPS INTO
THE EXTENDED...

OVERALL THE ETA INITIALIZED BEST AT THE SURFACE TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES FROM CANADA TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. IN THE WEST ALL MODELS
DOING A FAIR JOB WITH THE AVN AND ETA DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDING UP FROM THE GULF OF BAJA. ALL MODELS TOO
COOL AT H85 IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE AVN DOING A BETTER
JOB IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT H5 THE NGM AND AVN ARE TOO AMPLIFIED
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NGM IS TOO FLAT
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM GREAT BASIN. OUT TO 18Z THE NGM IS
NOT TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WELL AT ALL. THE
AVN IS A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR EAST...WITH THE ETA BY FAR DOING A
SUPERIOR JOB. WITH THE PAST TRACK RECORD AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WILL GO WITH AN ETA/AVN SOLUTION...LEANING MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS THE
ETA.

FOR TONIGHT...18Z ETA HAS CUT BACK ON QPF FIELDS FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OMEGA FIELDS MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH AND A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...H7
VORT AXIS AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF BL THETA-E CONV PASS THROUGH
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. INTO SUNDAY...AVN H7 AND
H85 TEMPS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. IN THIS TIME OF YEAR H7 IS NOT AN
UNREASONABLE MIXING DEPTH AND H85 TEMPS ARE 3-5C TOO LOW FOR THE
PROGGED H7 TEMPS. THE 60HR ETA SUPPORTS THIS ALSO SO WILL GO CLOSE
TO FWC TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE EAST WHERE
COOLER H7 TEMPS EXIST.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE MRF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AS OF LATE ON A
RUN TO RUN BASIS...AND FEEL THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND
BRINGS SURFACE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH INTO H5 RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MRF SOLUTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN SPITE OF MODEL QPF FIELDS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE MONDAY...DROPPING H7 TEMPS FROM 18C TO LESS THAN 8C. WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND GOOD CAPE AVAILABLE...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE A GOOD INITIATOR FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    6 NW MC ALLASTER          KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   LOGAN                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

SULLIVAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
510 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    4 E ATWOOD                KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   RAWLINS                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

SULLIVAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0410 PM    5 NE STRATTON             NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   HITCHCOCK

SULLIVAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
620 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0515 PM    9 S ACHILLES              KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   RAWLINS

0515 PM    25 SW OBERLIN             KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   DECATUR

0530 PM    3 N REXFORD               KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   THOMAS

0530 PM    30 NW HOXIE               KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   SHERIDAN

0557 PM    4 N HOXIE                 KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   SHERIDAN

0600 PM    NEW ALMELO                KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   NORTON

0602 PM    LENORA                    KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   NORTON

KSZ004-015-016-028-029-042-270700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
620 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS;

GOVE...GRAHAM...LOGAN...NORTON...SHERIDAN AND WICHITA.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH UNSTABLE AIR
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

SVEN