Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND TEMPS INTO
THE EXTENDED...

OVERALL THE ETA INITIALIZED BEST AT THE SURFACE TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES FROM CANADA TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. IN THE WEST ALL MODELS
DOING A FAIR JOB WITH THE AVN AND ETA DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDING UP FROM THE GULF OF BAJA. ALL MODELS TOO
COOL AT H85 IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE AVN DOING A BETTER
JOB IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT H5 THE NGM AND AVN ARE TOO AMPLIFIED
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NGM IS TOO FLAT
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM GREAT BASIN. OUT TO 18Z THE NGM IS
NOT TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WELL AT ALL. THE
AVN IS A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR EAST...WITH THE ETA BY FAR DOING A
SUPERIOR JOB. WITH THE PAST TRACK RECORD AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WILL GO WITH AN ETA/AVN SOLUTION...LEANING MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS THE
ETA.

FOR TONIGHT...18Z ETA HAS CUT BACK ON QPF FIELDS FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OMEGA FIELDS MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH AND A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...H7
VORT AXIS AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF BL THETA-E CONV PASS THROUGH
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. INTO SUNDAY...AVN H7 AND
H85 TEMPS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. IN THIS TIME OF YEAR H7 IS NOT AN
UNREASONABLE MIXING DEPTH AND H85 TEMPS ARE 3-5C TOO LOW FOR THE
PROGGED H7 TEMPS. THE 60HR ETA SUPPORTS THIS ALSO SO WILL GO CLOSE
TO FWC TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE EAST WHERE
COOLER H7 TEMPS EXIST.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE MRF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AS OF LATE ON A
RUN TO RUN BASIS...AND FEEL THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND
BRINGS SURFACE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH INTO H5 RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MRF SOLUTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN SPITE OF MODEL QPF FIELDS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE MONDAY...DROPPING H7 TEMPS FROM 18C TO LESS THAN 8C. WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND GOOD CAPE AVAILABLE...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE A GOOD INITIATOR FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TRI-STATE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE
LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT
A MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO TO WICHITA COUNTY KANSAS. WITH SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...EXPECT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

THEDE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

.CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME.

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TRI-STATE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE
LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT
A MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO TO WICHITA COUNTY KANSAS. WITH SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...EXPECT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

THEDE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000

.CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME.

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TRI-STATE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE
LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT
A MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO TO WICHITA COUNTY KANSAS. WITH SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...EXPECT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&
7
THEDE