Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MST TUE OCT 31 2000

...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP TONIGHT WITH TEMPS AND WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET DRY SLOTTED THIS TIME AROUND...
EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MIDDLE 50S. THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHEAST TRACK THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. BASED ON ITS PERFORMANCE
WITH PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THE LAST FEW WEEKS AND CURRENT HANDLING
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTAL POSITION...ILL RELY HEAVILY ON
THE ETA. WILL ISSUE EVENING PACKAGE WITH THE TORNADO WATCH.

TONIGHT...DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED TRW ACTIVITY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PROGGED ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF
THE NORTHWEST CWA. SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF...SPEEDS IN THE
BREEZY CATEGORY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO 50 TO
55 EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY. COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BASED ON PAST
PERFORMANCE...WILL RELY ON THE COLDER MAV/FWC FOR LOWS. AS FOR
HIGHS...DIFFERENCES PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AT 850 WITH THE ETA/AVN ALMOST
10F COOLER THAN THE NGM. WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WONT DEVIATE MUCH. WILL WORD IT NEAR 50 NORTHWEST AND NEAR 60 EAST.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5F COOLER AS COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS
IN TO THE AREA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST (FRI-SUN)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW DIVES TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA BUT REMAINS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TO AFFECT OUR DRY
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY. MRF APPEARS
A LITTLE TO EAGER TO GENERATE PRECIP SATURDAY WITH SUCH A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA. CANADIAN/NOGAPS KEEP US DRY AS
WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE MRF. WILL TREND TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE MRF 850 TEMPS FOR HIGHS.

.GLD...NONE.

THEDE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-010500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 AM MST TUE OCT 31 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF A WRAY COLORADO TO
GOODLAND KANSAS TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE
KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE HIGHEST MAINLY EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS
LINE WITH THESE STORMS.  HIGH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL
POSE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH WITH STRONG WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AWJ

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-010300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MST TUE OCT 31 2000

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH 8 PM MST (9 PM CST)...

A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THIS
REASON A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...SHERMAN...
THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...AND
WICHITA.  THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE INCLUDED IN
THIS WATCH...YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

AWJ/LB