Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 PM MDT SAT OCT 28 2000

       ...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND PRECIP...

UPPER LOW COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
AS THE UPPER LOW OR REMNANTS OF MOVE NORTHEAST...THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DRY OUT AS NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE HOLD. SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT MORE INTENSE UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. LITTLE IMPACT HERE. AVN 850 AND SURFACE
TEMPS APPEAR MUCH TO COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ETA/NGM.

WITH 18Z ETA COMING IN...ITS INDICATING THAT THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
KDEN, KLBF, KDDC AROUND 250% OF NORMAL, AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH EXPECTED...THIS SEEMS PRUDENT.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 POP FOR TRW AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY...PRECIP COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP EXITS THE NORTHEAST CWA LAST.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CWA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOWS 45 TO 50 OVER THE WEST...NEAR 50
CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S EAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 EXCEPT NEAR
65 EAST...CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRY. NORTHWEST WINDS BREEZY/WINDY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DURING THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 35 TO 40 WEST...NEAR 45 EAST. ON
MONDAY...A BIT OF WARMING DESPITE 850 TEMPS COOLING ABOUT 2F. WILL GO
WITH NEAR 60 WEST...MIDDLE 60S EAST.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS (TUE-THR)...IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW AGREED UPON
BY THE MODELS TO DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TUESDAY...ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHEAST COLORADO AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY. IN SUMMARY...
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD AND INTO NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY. DRY SLOT APPEARS TO FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK BUT THIS FAR OUT I'LL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN. AS
FAR AS SNOW...850 TEMPS WELL ABOVE ZERO NEGATING THAT THREAT. DRY
ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE AND ANY DYNAMICS ARE WELL AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

.GLD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFECT TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THEDE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-290600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1057 AM MDT SAT OCT 28 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SURFACE LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WILL RESULT CONTINUED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BEING THE GREATEST THREAT.
SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL PROBLEM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LOWLAND FLOODING.  THE
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVELY HEAVY RAINS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL
CITY TO TRIBUNE IN KANSAS.

ENTWISTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1244 PM MDT SAT OCT 28 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 PM    GOVE                      KS   TORNADO
10/28/00   GOVE                           TORNADO BROKE LARGE
                                          TREE LIMBS IN CITY OF
                                          GOVE. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1239 PM    7 N GOVE                  KS   TORNADO
10/28/00   GOVE                           BRIDGE RAILINGS RIPPED
                                          OFF BY TORNADO.
     0                                     REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

AWJ

N

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT SAT OCT 28 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1259 PM    5 S HOXIE                 KS   TORNADO
10/28/00   SHERIDAN                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

AWJ

N

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-290200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
251 PM MDT SAT OCT 28 2000

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT (8 PM MDT) FOR
NORTHWEST KANSAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS GOING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO.  INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MORE JUST A LITTLE EAST OF
DUE NORTH AT 40 MPH WHILE THE LINE ITSELF PUSHES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THIS TORNADO WATCH ARE...
    CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...
    SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...
    WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...
    GREELEY...AND WICHITA.

THIS IS THE TIME TO THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD DO IN THE EVENT YOU
SEE A TORNADO OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.  THE BEST
SHELTER IS FOUND ON THE LOWEST FLOOR O7F YOUR HOME.  TAKE COVER IN A
CLOSET OR BATHROOM OR UNDER A STURDY PIECE OF FURNITURE.

ENTWISTLE