Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT TUE OCT 3 2000

...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PCPN AND TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...

BASED ON INITIAL ANALYSIS/TRENDS AT SIX HOURS...KNOWN BIASES...AND
SATL/CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL PREFER A BLEND OF ETA/AVN. FOR
PCPN...ATTM AREA OF TSRA MOVG IN FROM CO. LOOKS TO BE ASSOCD WITH
RRQ OF JET AND MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SFC DPS ARE IN THE LWR TO
MID 50S WITH 85H DP PROGS HAVG DPS NR 50 TONIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RRQ/DECENT UPWARD MOTIONS MOVES OVR
AND NR CWFA TONIGHT.

JET REMAINS CLOSE THROUGH TMRW AFTN WITH THE STRENGTH OF JET
INCREASING. STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO
DEVELOPS AT THAT TIME. ALL THAT PLUS MSTR CONV AHEAD OF FRONT...WL MAKE
FOR A WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT TMRW NIGHT. ETA INSTABILITY PROGS POINT
TO TSRA. HWVR...THINK SIGNIFICANT CLD COVER IS GOING TO HANG AROUND
DURG THE DAY...AND WL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ATTM AM GOING TO PUT SHRA
IN FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE ISOLD TSRA WITH STRENGTH OF
DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR INVOLVED.

THE AVN THEN MOVES IN ANOTHER RRQ DURG THE DAY THURSDAY. COMBO OF
THAT...COLD AIR...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...WL KEEP SHRA IN ON THU.
TRICKY TEMP FCST...ESPECIALLY TMRWS MAXES. WITH LACK OF DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND WK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW LVLS...WL KEEP CLDS ARND WED...AND
HAVE MAXES NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NGM MOS. STRONG FRONT IS NEARLY HALF
WAY THROUGH CWFA BY 12Z THU. ON THU...WL BE LTL IF ANY RISE WITH
MAXES REACHED EARLY AND WL GO BLO NGM MOS MAXES.

IN THE EXTENDED...SOME CHANGE IN THE NEW MODEL RUN FROM THE PREVIOUS.
THE MRF IS MORE AMPLIFIED/SHARPER AND A LTL SLOWER WITH INCOMING
TROF. THE UKMET/AVN ARE CLOSE TO THIS AS WELL. THE ECMWF IS A LTL
FASTER AND NOT AS DEEP AS THE MRF. HWVR...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TWD
THE MRF SOLN. GIVEN THE TROFINESS/JET ENERGY I SEE OVER THE CNTRL
PACIFIC AND THE VORTEX SPINNING OVR CANADA...THE SLOWER/MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLN LOOKS ON TRACK.

LOOKS TO BE SOME PCPN ONGOING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THAT
SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN FURTHER...WL KEEP CHC OF PCPN INTO FRIDAY.
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. VERY COLD IN THE EFP WITH
MRF BEING THE COLDEST. WARMUP WL BE SLOW DUE TO LACK OF DOWSLOPE
WINDS AND SFC RDG NOT BEING TO EAGER TO MOVE EAST. BASED ON 85H
TEMPS/2M FROM MRF...WL ULNDERCUT FMR MAXES DURING THIS TIME.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-040600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 PM MDT TUE OCT 3 2000

...MUCH COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER HEADED FOR THE REGION...

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. BEHIND THIS
SECOND FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS ALSO EXPECTED TO POUR
INTO THE REGION...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IF YOU DO NOT WANT ANY PLANTS TO EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE...
THEY WILL NEED TO BE COVERED DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE WET AND
COLD CONDITIONS...ALL OUTSIDE ANIMALS WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED...
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BULLER