Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT FRI SEP 8 2000

...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS...

LATEST 12Z NCEP MODEL RUN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...BUT SUFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AT LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
WITH TEMPS. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAT AT NEARLY 50 KTS...REACHING THE FORECAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SHRA AND TRW OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA. AS UPPER
HIGH BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD UPPER LOW
ALOFT TO OUR NORTH...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN U.S. WILL
TRANSFER INTO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH ETA/AVN COMBO THIS
PACKAGE BASED ON 850/SURFACE TEMP...QPF FORECASTS. BOTH 00Z AND 12Z
(TODAY) FWC GUIDANCE UP TO 8 DEGREES OFF TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE TO INFLUENCE MAINLY THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED TRW POSSIBLE.
12Z KAIN-FRITSCH INLINE WITH NCEP QPF GUIDANCE. NSSL MM5 PICKED UP
ON AND GENERATES MODEST PRECIP ALONG BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON
88D ORIENTED EAST-WEST. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD
OF LEE TROUGH. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST AND UPPER 60S
EAST. WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP CONSIDERABLY.

SATURDAY...SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES OUT. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE SO DRY CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN FORECAST HIGHS. FWC GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE 80S
EXCEPT LOWER 90S NORTH. ETA/AVN 2M SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR 90 WEST AND
MID/UPPER 90S EAST. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT 2M TEMPS WITH VALUES OF AGREED
ON BY THE MODELS TO BE AROUND +28C. WITH DECENT DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
LACK OF CLOUDS WILL GO OVER FWC GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SOME 5 TO
15 DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP IT DRY AND COOLER. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
FWC/ETA/AVN TEMPS WITH 50 TO 55 WEST...55 TO 60 EAST.

SUNDAY...TOUGH CALL ONCE AGAIN. ETA FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 90S...
AVN NEAR/LOWER 90S...WHILE FWC GOING WITH LOWER 80S. 850 TEMPS FROM
THE ETA/AVN BOTH SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS VALUES. WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH 85 TO 90...EXCEPT 90 TO 95 FAR EAST AND SOUTH.

EXTENDED FORECAST...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UPPER HIGH ALONG
THE EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK TO
THE NORTH. UPPER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. BUT WITH SUCH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP IT DRY. ON TUESDAY...UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE CORN BELT AREA WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW A FALL LIKE COOLDOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO DRY IT WILL BE. UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS A BIT
WEDNESDAY AS MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. VORT MAX/SPEED MAX
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH LEE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL TRI-STATE AREA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR
TEMPS...2M MRF TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK WITH GUIDANCE SO NOT A WHOLE LOT
OF DEVIATION.

.GLD...NONE.

THEDE