Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT MON AUG 28 2000

...CHALLENGES ARE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT GOES TONIGHT AND HOW FAR NORTH
TUE...

MODELS VERY SIMILAR TODAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND BUT STILL
LEAN TOWARD ETA BASED ON TEMP AND PRECIP FIELDS. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR OGALLALA TO NEAR NORTH PLATTE TO NEAR
BROKEN BOW NEB. MOVING SOUTH AT NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AREA MY CWA NEAR 00Z. MY SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FCST BASED ON
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PROG. FRONT TO PASS GLD BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z. THEN
BEGIN TO SLOW AND REACH SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA (LEOTI TO JUST SE OF
HILL CITY) BY SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT IT TO BEGIN RETURN TRACK TO NNE
REACHING BURLINGTON CO TO HILL CITY LINE BY NOON AND ALONG NEB-KS
BORDER BY LATE AFTN.

TEMPS TONIGHT FROM MIDDLE 50S IN NNW TO MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTH. SEE SCT
TO WDLY SCT TSRAS WITH FRONT...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. AS
FRONT MOVES NORTH ON TUE AGAIN SEE WDLY SCT TSRAS POSSIBLE TO NORTH
OF FRONT...MOSTLY LIKELY IN PM. SOME LOW CLOUDINESS IN AM ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW BUT THINK MOST OF THAT TO BE FROM EXTREME
NORTHERN CWA INTO NEB WHERE FRONT STRONGER AND IN POSITION LONGER.
HIGHS TUE TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 90S IN EXTREME S-SE TO LOW 80S
ALONG KS/NEB BORDER.

TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR
GUID. WED SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND SPREAD STABLE HEAT OVER AREA.
ONCE AGAIN 85H TEMPS INDICATE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MOST OF CWA.

IN EXTENDED MRF/ECM/UKMET STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER FRONT
COMES THRU LATE WED NIGHT/THU BRINGING RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS (80S).
CHANCE TSRAS CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STAYING MOSTLY IN
UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 80S RANGE MOST OF PERIOD (IE,NEAR NORMAL).
MRF AND ECM BEGIN TO DEPART SAT AS MRF MOVES DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
IN CENTER PTN COUNTRY...WHERES ECM HOLDS BACK. IF MRF PROVES RIGHT
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD PROVE A NICE BREAK IN HEAT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC