Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 PM MDT SUN AUG 20 2000

ASSESSING STRENGTH OF RIDGE...TIMING OF FRONTS AND VORTS...PRECIP
CHANCES ARE CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE.

BASED ON 12Z INITIALIZATION...COMPARISON OF PROGS WITH 18Z DATA...
AND CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY IN YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES...WILL
LEAN A LITTLE TO THE ETA BUT BRING IN THE COLD FRONT A BIT FASTER
THAN PROGGED BASED ON COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND
FRONT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TSRA CURRENTLY FIRING OFF DRYLINE.  RUC CURRENTLY HANDLING THIS
ACTIVITY BEST SO WILL HAVE 50 POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA WITH 20
AND 30 POP ELSEWHERE.  THEN...THERE MAY ALSO BE PRECIP BEHIND FRONT
WITH DRY SLOT AHEAD OF IT.  POPS OUTSIDE THE NORTHWEST ARE BASED ON
EXPECTATION THAT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FASTER THAN ETA WITH DRY
SLOT WILL BE PUSHED TO EAST AND SOUTH.  MIN TEMPS AIMED AT MIDRANGE
BETWEEN 12Z PROG 2 METER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

ON MONDAY WE GET A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
THE INCREASING WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  ADDED TO THE MIX IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY.   FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWFA DURING THE
TIME OF MAX HEATING WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH ALL THE WAY
WEST TO THE FRONT RANGE.  HAVE OPTED TO STRIPE POPS FROM 50 IN THE
SOUTH TO 20 IN THE NORTH.  NOT MUCH OF A COOL OFF...THOUGH...WITH
MAX TEMPS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN ETA 850MB TEMP TECHNIQUE...
MINUS 1C TO ACCOUNT FOR FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION...AND ETA 700
MB TEMP TECHNIQUE.

MONDAY NIGHT FEATURES A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...FOUND ON ETA AND
NGM...MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SOME KIND OF
MCS POSSIBLE ACROSS NEBRASKA.  KMCK AND AREA JUST WEST AND
SOUTHWEST COULD BE SKIPPED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THIS TSRA COMPLEX AND
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.  MIN TEMPS FIGURED SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.

TUESDAY STILL HAS THAT FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWFA WITH A LEE
TROUGH/WEAK DRY LINE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  WILL HAVE A 20 POP IN
THE WEST.  TEMPS FORECAST USING UNADJUSTED 850 MB TEMPS AND 700 MB
TEMPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...PROGS MOVE RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD WITH SHORTWAVES
CRUISING THE NORTHERN EDGE.  LEE TROUGH PERSISTS AND A WEAK COOL
FRONT OR TWO COULD WORK INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE BOUNDARIES FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  REGIME IS TRYING TO MOVE INTO A TROUGH-
RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WITH REGION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND.   WILL WORD PRECIP CHANCES AS SLIGHT
CHANCE DAYS 3 AND 4 AND CHANCE DAY 5 AS GREATEST HEIGHT FALL OCCUR
THEN.  WILL STAY CLOSE TO FMR/MEX GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND AIM ABOUT
32F ABOVE MINS FOR THE HIGHS PER LATEST OBSERVED DIURNAL RANGES.

.GLD...NONE.

ENTWISTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 PM MDT SUN AUG 20 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    4 N KANORADO              KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/20/00   SHERMAN                        60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

N

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT SUN AUG 20 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    RULETON                   KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/20/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

N

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT SUN AUG 20 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    17 N WESKAN               KS   .88 INCH HAIL
08/20/00   WALLACE                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

N

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
641 PM MDT SUN AUG 20 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0630 PM    16 NNE TRIBUNE            KS   .75 INCH HAIL
08/20/00   GREELEY                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

N

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