Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT THU JUL 27 2000

...CHALLENGES ARE EXTENT OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND TEMPS SAT...

MODELS VERY SIMILAR AT INITIALIZATION BUT ETA APPEARED SLIGHTLY
BETTER WITH RESPECT TO S/W AT 50H AND SFC PRESS CENTERS. NONE OF THE
MODELS DID TOO WELL ON QPF BUT ETA/NGM SEEMED SOMEWHAT MORE
REASLISTIC. AVN TOO DRY. WILL GO WITH ETA.

LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT WITH 50H STILL QUITE STRONG BUT UPPER ATMOSPHERE
STILL SLOWLY INCREASING IN MOISTURE. LOWER ATMOSPHERE ALSO FAIRLY
WET WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS MY CWA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES SLOW DESTABILIZATION OF LAST
DAY OR SO.

TONIGHT ANOTHER S/W COMES OUT OF EAST WYO AND DOWN EAST SIDE OF
RIDGE. POSSIBLE MCS BEGINS IN S NEB AND MOVES SOUTH. BOUNDARY IN SW
NEB INTO S CEN NEB WILL ACTIVATE AS COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH SLOWLY BEHIND/FOLLOWING ENERGY OF MCS. EXPECT IT TO MOVE SOUTH
OF MY CWA BY LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.
TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 POPS IN FAR E/NE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
MCS/S/W. COULD BE A FEW SEVERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. POPS FALL RAPIDLY AS
GO WSW WITH ISOLD ONLY IN FAR S/SW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES SLOWLY
EAST OUT OF CO THIS EVEN.

FRI SEE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING POPS IN EAST AND ALL DAY
IN SOUTH AS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN THAT REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN NORTH AND NEAR 90 IN SOUTH. FRONT HOLDING FOR SECOND S/W TO MOVE
DOWN RIDGE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OVER CO WITH
SLIGHT REORIENTATION OF AXIS. CENTER OF UPPER HIGH IN AZ. FEW LATE
TSRAS BEGIN LATE IN NW PORTION OF CWA.

FRI NIGHT SEE WEAKER S/W MOVE SSE TO EAST OF CWA BRINGING A FEW
EVENING TSRAS BEFORE GENERALLY COOLING (ALBEIT SLIGHT) AND DRYING
OVER CWA. FRONT MOVES INTO S KS/N OK AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY TO
NORTH.

SAT LOOKS TO BEGIN A 3 DAY PD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS. BOTH ECM AND MRF IN AGREEMENT SFC HIGH BUILDS INITIALLY OVER
NEB SAT AND SLOWLY MOVES SE DURING NEXT TWO DAYS. CENTER OF UPPER
HIGH MOVES SLOWLY NNW TO UTAH AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTH THEN
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES SUN/MON SO
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HOLDS ON HERE THRU
MON. SLIGHT WARMUP STARTS TUE WITH RETURN FLOW OVER MTN WEST AND
POSSIBLE TSRAS IN AT LEAST WESTERN PTN CWA.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-NEZ079>081-280400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MDT THU JUL 27 2000

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON AND YUMA.

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW.

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...WALLACE...RAWLINS...
THOMAS...LOGAN...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GOVE...NORTON AND GRAHAM.

A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS TSEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT THU JUL 27 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
|
0445 PM    3 N BREWSTER              KS   .75 INCH HAIL
07/27/00   THOMAS                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

AWJ

N