Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT THU JUL 27 2000

...CHALLENGES ARE EXTENT OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND TEMPS SAT...

MODELS VERY SIMILAR AT INITIALIZATION BUT ETA APPEARED SLIGHTLY
BETTER WITH RESPECT TO S/W AT 50H AND SFC PRESS CENTERS. NONE OF THE
MODELS DID TOO WELL ON QPF BUT ETA/NGM SEEMED SOMEWHAT MORE
REASLISTIC. AVN TOO DRY. WILL GO WITH ETA.

LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT WITH 50H STILL QUITE STRONG BUT UPPER ATMOSPHERE
STILL SLOWLY INCREASING IN MOISTURE. LOWER ATMOSPHERE ALSO FAIRLY
WET WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS MY CWA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES SLOW DESTABILIZATION OF LAST
DAY OR SO.

TONIGHT ANOTHER S/W COMES OUT OF EAST WYO AND DOWN EAST SIDE OF
RIDGE. POSSIBLE MCS BEGINS IN S NEB AND MOVES SOUTH. BOUNDARY IN SW
NEB INTO S CEN NEB WILL ACTIVATE AS COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH SLOWLY BEHIND/FOLLOWING ENERGY OF MCS. EXPECT IT TO MOVE SOUTH
OF MY CWA BY LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.
TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 POPS IN FAR E/NE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
MCS/S/W. COULD BE A FEW SEVERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. POPS FALL RAPIDLY AS
GO WSW WITH ISOLD ONLY IN FAR S/SW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES SLOWLY
EAST OUT OF CO THIS EVEN.

FRI SEE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING POPS IN EAST AND ALL DAY
IN SOUTH AS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN THAT REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN NORTH AND NEAR 90 IN SOUTH. FRONT HOLDING FOR SECOND S/W TO MOVE
DOWN RIDGE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OVER CO WITH
SLIGHT REORIENTATION OF AXIS. CENTER OF UPPER HIGH IN AZ. FEW LATE
TSRAS BEGIN LATE IN NW PORTION OF CWA.

FRI NIGHT SEE WEAKER S/W MOVE SSE TO EAST OF CWA BRINGING A FEW
EVENING TSRAS BEFORE GENERALLY COOLING (ALBEIT SLIGHT) AND DRYING
OVER CWA. FRONT MOVES INTO S KS/N OK AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY TO
NORTH.

SAT LOOKS TO BEGIN A 3 DAY PD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS. BOTH ECM AND MRF IN AGREEMENT SFC HIGH BUILDS INITIALLY OVER
NEB SAT AND SLOWLY MOVES SE DURING NEXT TWO DAYS. CENTER OF UPPER
HIGH MOVES SLOWLY NNW TO UTAH AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTH THEN
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES SUN/MON SO
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HOLDS ON HERE THRU
MON. SLIGHT WARMUP STARTS TUE WITH RETURN FLOW OVER MTN WEST AND
POSSIBLE TSRAS IN AT LEAST WESTERN PTN CWA.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-280559-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MDT THU JUL 27 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO...
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS IS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO FLAGLER. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD MOVED TO ALONG THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA BORDER FROM NORTH OF SAINT FRANCIS TO NEAR NORTON LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE EXPE}CTED SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE STORMS AND THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.