Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT SAT JUL 22 2000

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TEMPS THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS.

06Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUING OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OF
YESTERDAY ACROSS CWA. MAIN BOUNDARY LIES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MIDDLE OF CWA MAINLY ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE.  ALSO ANOTHER 5H VORT MAX EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES.
WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION OF ETA AND AVN MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BEST CAPES AND INSTABILITY LIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
OVER KANSAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS
FOR TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. WILL ALSO GO
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS DUE TO CONTINUATION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTH WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
MOST AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD THUS
DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WITH NO POPS ELSEWHERE. UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE ALSO SEEMS TO STABILIZE FROM THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE SOMEWHAT GENERALLY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 8H AND 7H TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE
A VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT FROM RAIN OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
THUS WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF KANSAS. WILL GO WITH MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT AGAIN
IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE RESULTING IN HIGHER TEMPS
AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE MONDAY DRY DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR ALL AREAS.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HANGS AROUND IN THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT
TO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS WELL OVER AREA BY THURSDAY WITH A DRY AND HOT ATMOSPHERE.
WILL GO WITH GENERALLY LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 90S.

.GLD...NONE

LAMMERS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-230600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT SAT JUL 22 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY STABILIZE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY
KANSAS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. AN INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WHERE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT. ADDING A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
232 PM MDT SAT JUL 22 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    7 NW GOODLAND             KS   .75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0138 PM    GOODLAND                  KS   .88 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0141 PM    3 N GOODLAND              KS   .75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0142 PM    3 NW GOODLAND             KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN

0155 PM    7 NW GOODLAND             KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0155 PM    GOODLAND                  KS   .75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0200 PM    CARUSO                    KS   .75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0206 PM    3 SW CARUSO               KS   1.25 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0215 PM    7 S GOODLAND              KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0220 PM    15 S GOODLAND             KS   2.75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

N

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
301 PM MDT SAT JUL 22 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0235 PM    9 S GOODLAND              KS   2.5 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   SHERMAN                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0255 PM    SHARON SPGS               KS   1 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   WALLACE                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0256 PM    SHARON SPGS               KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   WALLACE                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

N