Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT SAT JUL 8 2000

ATTM SFC OBS SHOW A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT LINE FROM SDY-AKO-LIC
BUT A STRONG 5H/HI THAT DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS STILL THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR
AREA PROVIDING VERY WARM TO HOT AFTN TMPS. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
5H/HI POSITION MAY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE OVR
COLORADO TO CREEP INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EARLY EVENING. ALSO A
5H/VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOVES ENE INTO C NEBRASKA TONIGHT
WHICH MAY ALSO ADD TO THE POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

AT 7H/MBS THE MODELS INDICATED A WEAK MOISTR PLUME WAS OVR THE
EASTERN FA AND AS AFTN TMPS RISE INTO THE 100S...APPROACHING THE
CONVECTIVE TMP...A FEW TSRA MAY DEVELOP BUT LOW LVL MOISTR REMAINS
MINIMAL AND WILL NOT METNION POPS ATTM. ALSO A LOW LVL JET SETS UP
ACRS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND MAY WORD THESE
ZONES WITH BREEZY.

FOR SUNDAY 5H/HGHTS DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT 850/TMPS INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO AND WITH A SW DOWNSLOPE WIND BELIEVE AFTN TMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK FOR MOST PORTIONS OF THE TRI
STATE AREA. 7H/MBS OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ACRS THE FA SUNDAY AND THE
AVN APPEARS TO INDICATE A DRY LINE OVER THE WESTERN FA. THEREFORE I
WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR OUR COLORADO ZONES AND THOUGHT ABOUT MENTIONING
POPS FOR THE REMAINING FA BUT WITH INCREASING 700MBS TMPS I WILL
LEAVE THIS OUT FOR THE MOMENT. ALSO 850 WINDS WERE IN THE BREEZY
CATAGORY SUN AFTN/EVE AND WILL WORD THE ZONES EAST OF THE CO/KS LINE
ACCORDINGLY.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WAS EVIDENT ON MONDAY. THE ETA TRIES
TO MOVE A COOL FRONT ACRS THE CWA ON NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WHILE BOTH
THE AVN/NGM STALLS THIS FRONT OVR NEBRASKA KEEPING THE FA IN A VERY
WARM TO HOT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE NGM HAS BEEN THE COOLR MODEL WHERE AS
THE AVN SEEMS TO BE ON TARGET SO MAY LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLN. AFTN TMPS
SHUD CLIMB ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT AND WE CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY WITH AFTN TMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 90S
ON MONDAY. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS JUST N OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTN AND WITH
COOLR 7H/TMPS A FEW TSRA MAY DEVELOP THEREFORE WILL MENTION SOME POPS
ACRS THE FA.

IN THE EXTENDED....THE ECMWF AND MRF FLATTEN OUT THE 500 MB RIDGE
TEMPORARILY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COOL FRONT AT THE SURFACE
LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PRONOUNCED
WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA MONDAY NIGHT IN TUESDAY WITH SOME HEIGHT FALLS AND POSSIBLE VORT
CENTERS BRUSHING THE AREA. THE RIDGE THEN REBUILDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE RISING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

VPAPOL/SULLIVAN