Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND
227 PM MDT MON APR 24 2000

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPS.

18Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STRONG S/W TROUGH OVER
EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO MOVING TO THE EAST.

MODELS IN GOOD INITIALIZATION AND AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
WILL GO WITH THE ETA THIS PACKAGE SINCE IT IS MORE IN LINE WITH
REALITY OF TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF SURFACE SYSTEMS AS WELL AS WITH
PROJECTED PRECIP AND CONVECTION.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST OVER CWA INTO TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT AND
TROUGH BOTH MOVE EAST TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST TO EAST AS DYNAMICS AND
FEATURES MOVE EAST. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO AREA. COLD
FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO AREA FROM NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM NICELY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. WILL GO CLOSER TO
FWC MOS GUIDANCE FOR COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE MOST AREAS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER AREA
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S MOST AREAS.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING DRY
AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
80S EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD COOLER SLIGHTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER ATMOSPHERE.

.GLD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT) COZ091-092
NEZ079-080 KSZ001-013-027

LAMMERS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT MON APR 24 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO.

DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AMPLE AFTERNOON
HEATING COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ITS ASSOCIATED
COOLER AIR ALOFT...AND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WITH A LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE
TRI-STATE AREA...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO TO GOODLAND KANSAS TO
PALISADE NEBRASKA.

&&

THEDE

COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-027-NEZ079-080-242300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1221 PM MDT MON APR 24 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MDT (6 PM CDT)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206 HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE:

IN COLORADO...YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE
IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...WALLACE
IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-027-NEZ079-080-250000-

...CORRECTED WATCH EXPIRATION TIME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
104 PM MDT MON APR 24 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #206 HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE:

IN COLORADO...YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE
IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...WALLACE
IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHO{ULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.