Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2000

...CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES S TONIGHT AND POPS LATE MON/MON
NIGHT...

BOUNDARY MOVED ALMOST ALL THE WAY THRU THE CWA FROM NNW TO SSE THIS AM.
NOW NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG LINE FROM NEAR TRIBUNE TO NEAR HILL
CITY. ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE CWA MOSTLY CLEAR AND HOT.

ETA TODAY AGAIN LOOKED BEST AT INITIALIZATION MOST NOTICEABLY WITH
RESPECT TO REPRESENTING S/WS ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN
UPPER HIGH. AT SFC ALL MODELS SIMILAR AND DENOTE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
PRESSURE PATTERNS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL GO WITH ETA.

THINK THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY E AND NOT AMOUNT TO A
WHOLE LOT AS UPPER RIDGE HOT AND NEAR MAX INTENSITY. BOUNDARY SEEMS
TO BE SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. TONIGHT WILL GO WITH ISOLATED IN SOUTH TO
EAST EXTREMITIES OF CWA WITH ACTIVITY SHORT-LIVED INTO EVENING.

MON APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED. ALSO SEVERAL ANSWERS FROM THE DIFFERENT
MODELS. AVN KEEPS IT VERY WARM ALOFT WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. ETA AND NGM (TO WHICH I LEAN) BRING INTENSIFYING 70H TROUGH
UP WEST SIDE OF CWA AND TAKE VORT MAX SLOWLY ACROSS CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. AM GOING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON AND POPS BEGINNING IN SW EARLY PM.
POPS 30 PERCENT IN WEST DURING AFTERNOON AND DECREASING IN EVENING
WITH POPS MAXING AT 40 PERCENT IN CEN AND EAST DURING THE NIGHT. FEW
TSRAS MAY HANG ON IN EAST IN EARLY MORNING ON THE 4TH BEFORE
STABILITY RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. TEMPS NEAR GUID.

TUE SEE MUCH LESS CLOUDINESS AND DRYING WITH SOME CHANCE TSRAS IN
WEST LATE IN DAY AS ANOTHER (WEAKER) VORT MOVES NE IN SW FLOW.
HOTTER AGAIN ON TUES...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE PD.

IN EXTENDED WILL KEEP SAME AND ADD FRI AS DRY AND HOTTER AGAIN AS
BOTH ECM AND MRF STILL SHOW LARGE UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER CEN PART
OF COUNTRY.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT SUN JUL 2 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRISTATE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD GENERALLY BE EAST OF A NORTON TO
TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

LAMMERS