Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2000

...LOCATION AND CHANCE FOR STORMS MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE...

THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF KAKO AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR LIMON TO
THE FAR EASTERN CORNER OF COLORADO AT 20Z. WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWED CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE AS STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING CONTINUES AND AS STORMS MOVE INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CAPES TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES
TO DROP TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z.

HAVE CHOSEN THE MESO ETA AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE OTHER NCEP
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE RESOLUTION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS THE MESO ETA. EXPECT BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO LIMIT CONVECTION. CHANCES FOR STORMS AFTER SATURDAY ARE EVEN LOWER
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

.GLD...NONE.

SKIPPER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT THU JUN 29 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST AIR HAS RETURNED TO THE TRISTATE AREA ON THE
HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS IS MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
SIMULTANEOUSLY A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS INTENSIFYING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COMPACTED SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STIMULATED BY HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN EAST COLORADO AND MOVE EAST
INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

NEZ079>081-300000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1245 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH ARE DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE WATCH IS EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM MDT (700 PM CDT).
LARGE HAIL UP TO TWzO INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-300300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
306 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO BECOME SEVERE WILL INCREASE AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH ARE YUMA...KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO.  ALSO INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE...
RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS.

THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 900 PM MDT (1000 PM CDT). LARGE HAIL
UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

LOCKHART