Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Grand Junction, CO

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
200 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2000

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUBSIDED ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. LINE REDEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL UT BY LATE MORNING AND IS NOW
STRETCHED ACROSS CWA...FROM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN CO TO ABAJO MTS IN
UT. AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL UT. LINGERING
INSTABILITY FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY BEING ENHANCED BY JET SPEED MAX
WORKING UP FROM AZ...CATCHING CWA UNDER LEFT FRONT QUAD. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW OFF SOUTHERN CA COAST SENDING A NARROW
STREAM OF MOISTURE WITH SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INTO CWA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
ACROSS CWA WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST CO. SO...TYING
THIS ALL TOGETHER...HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT ACTIVITY STRICTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE DUE TO
THE MANY FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND HAVE TAKEN OUT EVENING
WORDING. DYNAMICS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. SUNDAY...WILL HAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW SKIRTING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA...AND GRADIENTS
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN. WILL PUT IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

FOR EXTENDED...MRF SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WESTERLY
FLOW TO MOST ENERGY FROM INCOMING SYSTEMS NORTH OF CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY. LATEST RUN SHOWS MORE AMPLIFICATION IN TROUGH DUE IN
WEDNESDAY. OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ON SAME PAGE WITH UKMET SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ALL FALL WEDNESDAY AND GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. WILL SEPARATE
OUT WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
GL

.GJT...NONE.