Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM SW TO NE NEBRASKA.  LESS WELL
DEFINED BUT MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS BORDER EXTENDING
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN COLORADO.  DRY LINE STRETCHES FROM GLD TO
DDC.  FARTHER EAST...HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED BY DEVELOPMENT OF MID
CLOUDS BUT MAIN KICKER BEARING DOWN ON AREA...NOW INTO WESTERN
KANSAS.  STILL LOOKS LIKE INITIATION TO BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY
BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.  WITH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS A
GIVEN...JUST WAITING FOR CAP TO BE BROKEN.  LOOKS LIKE ENTIRE
WESTERN CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR INITIATION WITH SVR WEATHER THREAT
SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING.  SVR WX WATCH IMMINENT AS PER SWOMCD
AND AREA PRIMED FOR TORNADOES AS WELL AS WINDS/HAIL.

DRY PUNCH MAY SHUT OFF PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTH.
SHOULD GET BEST RAINS OVER THE NORTH.  EXPECT WRAP AROUND PCPN TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY MORNING THEN REMAIN MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT AND THIS
IDEA REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE EPV INDICATED AT 700 MB ON ETA.  TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE COOL UNDER CLOUDS WITH SOME AREAS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S.

AS SKIES CLEAR THU NGT LOOK FOR VERY COOL TEMPS...APPROACHING 40.
RECOVERY SHOULD BEGIN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 60S.  ALL
IN ALL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL AND IN FACT ALL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF TSTMS IN FORECAST SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SHOULD
RETURN BY THAT TIME AHEAD OF NEXT...SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER TROUGH.

.GID...NONE.

DROZD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-172100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1107 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

AN ALREADY MOIST...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.  SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE PRIMARY SPOTS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ONE SUCH BOUNDARY IS A WARM FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  A THIRD BOUNDARY SEPARATING DRY AIR
FROM MOIST AIR IN EASTERN COLORADO...WILL ALSO BE A LIKELY LOCATION
FOR STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

ANY ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM AND GENERALLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ADDITION...WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  BE READY FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ALERT TO TORNADO FORMATION WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
336 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0332 PM    FULLERTON                 NE    WIND DAMAGE
05/17/00   NANCE                           TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN