Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
109 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000

...QUESTION OF THE DAY IS WHICH BOUNDARY TO KEY ON...

LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION HAVE LEFT SEVERAL IMPORTANT
BOUNDARIES IN THEIR WAKE.  THE MOST OBVIOUS ON VISIBLE IS AN ARC
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND ISLAND
THEN BACK THROUGH NORTHEAST CO.  A WEAK DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIES TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY IS MAINLY A
DEW POINT BOUNDARY BETWEEN JUICY AND VERY JUICY AIR.  DEEP MOISTURE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY WITH 85H DEWPOINTS AROUND 15 JUST
SOUTH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 70S
AROUND THE AREA.  THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE SOME
HEADWAY NORTH TO AT LEAST ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER BY LATER TODAY.  BUT
BOTH/EITHER BOUNDARIES COULD LIGHT UP LATER TODAY AS 7H-5H WAVE
SLOWLY PULLS EAST THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ETA
APPARENTLY DEALS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT
SO FAR TODAY AND TO A DEGREE LAST NIGHT.  ALSO LIKE THE ETAS SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT WILL BUMP ALL ZONES TO 40 POPS UNLESS SOMETHING HAPPENS
BEFORE ISSUANCE.  SOME CONCERN WITH HEAVY RAINS AND TRAINING WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WEST-EAST FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO PRESENT
BOUNDARIES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ACTIVE LLJ.  SEVERE
WX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS IF IT DOES MATERIALIZE.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARIES ARE PUSHED BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHERE THEY WILL BE.  RIDGING BEHIND 5H WAVE ON IN THE DAY SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP IN CHECK DURING THE DAY BUT THE NEXT SERIES OF WAVES FOLLOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING OF FRONT IS POOR FOR OPTIMAL LIFT BUT
CERTAINLY UNSETTLED ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY
NONETHELESS.

WILL PROBABLY END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT FORECAST.  MINS SEEM ESPECIALLY COOL WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S WILL UP THEM SOMEWHAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...FOR MONDAY WITH FRONT THROUGH BUT STALLED OVER
KANSAS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SOUTH LINGERS. AVN
SHOWS MCS TYPE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS WAVE IN
WESTERN KS.  WILL LEAVE TUESDAY DRY ANmD THEN SLIGHT CHANCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA.

GID...NONE.

LAST

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-232100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR THE AREA.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY MOVE EASTWARD AT AROUND 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO...ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

ANOTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDE MOISTURE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE BORDER COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA.

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