Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
310 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2000

CHC OF TSRA RMNS THE QN OF THE FP WITH UPR JET OVR THE NRN PLNS/H5
HIGH OVR NM/SFC FRONT SAGGING TO NR THE SD/NEB BRDR. SHRTWV MOVG ACRS
CO THIS AFTN ALSO EXPECTED TO FIRE SOME TSRA OVR HIGH PLNS AREAS
BEING HEATED TO NR CONVECTIVE TEMPS.

PRIMARY PCPN THREAT EXPECTED TO BE OVR SD/NRN NEB WHERE MID LVL TEMPS
ARE COOLER AND IN 850 MSTR CNVRGNC AREA ALNG THE FRONT.  GENLY...THE
MDLS AGGRESSIVELY SEND FRONT THRU THE NEB CWA ON TUE MRNG...THEN
HANG IT UP FOR FURTHER FOCUS OF TSRA THE REST OF THE FP.  MDLS ALSO
CONT THE AGGRESSIVE ADVCTN OF H7 TEMPS FM YSTRDAYS RUNS...WHICH ALNG
WITH THE EARLY MRNG LAPS...WERE 2-3 DEGS TOO WARM...ALLOWING JUST
ENOUGH POSITIVE AREA FOR LAST NGTS HIGH PLNS CONVECTION TO WEAKLY
PERSIST INTO PARTS OF CWA.  MDL SOUNDINGS...EVEN AFTR SHAVING MID
LVL TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...SHOW TOO MUCH CIN FOR FOR TSRA
ACTIVITY OVR ALL OF BUT NRN CWA TNGT...FOR SFC BASED AND ELEVATED
LIFT.  GOES SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP HAS STRENGTHENED OVR KS THIS AFTN AND
CLDS COMING OFF THE MTNS LK FLAT...SO WL DROP SLGT CHC FM SRN CWA...
PERSIST CHC ELSEWHERE.

FRONT PROGRESS OBVIOUSLY CRITICAL FOR TUE TEMP PROG AND FOR MSTR
FOCUS COME TUE NGT.  10 DEG DIFFERENCE IN MOS GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES
MDL ARGUMENT.  AM NOT WILD ABOUT ETA/AVN FRONTAL PROGRESS ALTHOUGH
HEALTHY MCS ACRS NRN NEB COULD CERTAINLY SEND IT THROUGH.  LLVL CLDS
MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE UNDR THE INVERSION...BUT WL GIVE CURRENT TEMP
PROG AN UPWARD BUMP WITH WARM FRONT REPOSITIONING/LONG DAY TO
PARTIALLY MIX OUT STILL-WARM LLVL SOUNDING.

WL MAINTAIN NOCTURNAL TSRA PATTERN INTO THE EFP AS TSRA ACTIVITY WL
CONT ALNG SWD SINKING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.

.GID...NONE.

09

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-300430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
943 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
UNTIL 3 AM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME A
THREAT TO ACCOMPANY THE WINDS AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
LATER TONIGHT.

THIS WATCH REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT EARLIER FOR VALLEY AND GREELEY COUNTIES AND A LARGE PART OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

DROZD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1021 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0842 PM    GOTHENBURG                NE    WIND DAMAGE
05/29/00   DAWSON                          12 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN

0900 PM    GOTHENBURG                NE    WIND DAMAGE
05/29/00   DAWSON                          TREES SNAPPED

0930 PM    LEXINGTON ARPT            NE    68 MPH TSTM GUST
05/29/00   DAWSON

0937 PM    LEXINGTON                 NE    WIND DAMAGE
05/29/00   DAWSON                          TREE LIMBS BLOWN INTO
                                           TRAILER

0940 PM    OVERTON                   NE    WIND DAMAGE
05/29/00   DAWSON                          TREE DAMAGE

0944 PM    COZAD                     NE    WIND DAMAGE
05/29/00   DAWSON                          TREES DOWN

1000 PM    7 N BERTRAND              NE    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/29/00   PHELPS