Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
234 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2000

...MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT...

A LOOK AT WV SATL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A NUMBER VORTS RIDING
OVER AND THRU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD INTO THE MID SECTIONS OF THE US. AT THE SFC UNORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO OUR CWA...THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE3S TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WEST NEBRASKA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE POOLING PREVAILS.
MSAS DATA IN THAT AREA INDICATES LIS AOB -10 WITH SFC DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY BEGINNING TO FIRE
SOUTH OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE AND WAA LIFT.

AS FOR THE MODELS...THEYVE DONE A FAIR JOB INITIALIZING ON THE
LARGE SCALE OVER THE CONUS. BUT LOOKING CLOSER AT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING OF VORTS RIDING THRU
THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. A LOOK SATL PIX
MAY SUGGEST THAT THE ETA/AVN MAY BE MORE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS THE
CWA. AS VORT MAX MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE AND
BREAK DOWN MODERATE CINH. COMPLEX SHOULD START SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WORK ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...SUPERCELLS SEEM RATHER UNLIKELY
AS PROGGED SFC-6KM WIND SHEAR REMAINS WELL BELOW 40KTS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF SHEAR EVENT LOOKS MORE MULTICELL WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS WELL AS SOME HAIL ALSO. THEREFORE WILL COVER
ENTIRE CWA WITH LIKELY WORDING.

FRIDAY...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER
KANSAS CWA. AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THOUGH...DECEASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON VIA SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS BE REALIZED NEAR GUIDANCE FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PCPN
FOUND FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST. FAN POPS LOOK A LITTLE AND TEMPS BIT
TOO COOL. WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS FWC HERE.

.GID...NONE

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
613 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
~
0610 PM    6 SE HEBRON               NE    1 INCH HAIL
07/27/00   THAYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0612 PM    5 SE HEBRON               NE    WIND DAMAGE
07/27/00   THAYER                          SMALL TREE DOWNED