Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

IN THE SHORT TERM...2 AREAS OF CONCERN ATTM. FIRST IS CONVECTION
FIRING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA NEAR A CONVERGENT FRONTAL BNDRY
STRETCHING NW-SE. WEDGE OF DEW POINTS IN THAT REGION ARE AOA 60 DEGS.
WILL THEREFORE SPLIT FIRST PERIOD INTO EVENING AND OVERNITE.  THE
SECOND AREA IS A BETTER DEFINED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVG THRU THE SRN
DAKOTAS. CURRENT TREND SUGGEST THAT CELLS WILL BEGIN TO MERGE OVER
SRN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NEB LATER THIS EVENING. THIS HAS
ALREADY PROMPTED SPC TO ISSUE A SVR TS WATCH TIL 9PM CDT FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES... THE
ETA SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE THRU AN AREA OF DECENT DPVA
BY 06Z TONITE. THE ETA ALSO SUGGEST THAT EARLY ON THIS EVENING THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...THEN LATER ON AS SHEAR WEAKENS...TREND MORE TOWARDS A
LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD TAKE SHAPE SOMETIME AFTER MIDNITE AND
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AN MCS SHOULD POP SOMEWHERE ACROSS WRN KS
WHERE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL GEOSTROPHIC FLOW MEETS STRONG 850MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
OVER KS CWA OVERNITE.

IN THE LONG TERM...TIME SECTIONS OVER THE AREA INDICATE PERSISTENT
AMPLE MOISTURE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 850-700MB WHICH SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DOES
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THRU 60 HRS WHICH SHOULD HELP SWEEP CLOUD COVER
OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR PCPN TAKES SHAPE
AGAIN SATURDAY NITE THRU SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES THOUGH SEEM
TO BE OVER OUR EASTERN CWA AND GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEB. WILL
THEREFORE COVER WITH SMALL POPS. AS FOR TEMPS FWC AND FAN HAD SOME
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES AT TIMES...SO EITHER USED A BLEND OR GUT
FEELING.

.GID...NONE

DEE

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-220000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
255 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE BEST BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXTEND FROM
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH ORD BY 6 OR 7 PM AND THEN PROGRESS TO THE KANSAS BORDER
AFTER SUNSET. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GURNEY