Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
205 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2000

PINNING DOWN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM SE NEBR ACROSS NRN KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SW KANSAS.  WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER BEHIND FRONT UNDER CLOUD COVER...DEW POINTS
STILL IN THE 65 TO 75 RANGE.  MCV PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
CWFA ATTM.  THESE COULD IGNITE OVER THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THEY MOVE INTO AIRMASS WHICH HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO HEATING.

EXPECT MAIN ROUND OF STORMS TO INITIATE IN SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR FRONT/TROUGH INTERSECTION. OTHER STORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED OVER NW KANSAS/SW NEBR BY WAVES EMBEDDED IN
TROPICAL PLUME EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THESE WAVES...WHICH
EXTEND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO...SHOULD SUSTAIN STORMS AFTER
SUNSET...HELPING THEM MOVE ACROSS CWFA.  MODELS INDICATE BEST LIFT
OVER SOUTHERN CWFA AND WOULD HAVE TO AGREE WITH THIS FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST POPS.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING EAST THEN
REFIRE ALONG FRONT AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE
COOLING ALOFT TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN CWFA WILL BEGIN TO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF SHORT
WAVE TO PROGRESS FROM NEVADA/IDAHO OVER RIDGE AND DROPPING THROUGH
DAKS/NRN NEBR BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS COULD MEAN DECENT SUN/WARMER
TEMPS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING. STORMS FIGURE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST BUT NOT SURE HOW FAR
THEY WILL ENCROACH TO THE WEST...SO WILL GO LOWEST POPS W TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL HAVE 1.5 TO
2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE H20 TO WORK WITH AND MOVE SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINS ARE A THREAT. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY OF AREAL COVERAGE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH NOT PRACTICAL ATTM.

WITH NW FLOW INTACT AS UPPER HIGH REFORMS WESTWARD...FRONT MAY BE
PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.  SO WILL
KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING WEDNESDAY.  FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS HINT OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM GETTING CAUGHT BETWEEN WAXING AND WANING CENTERS OF
HGIH PRESSURE ALOFT.  AVN PAINTS QUITE A BIT OF PCPN FROM THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SINCE 700MB MOISTURE STILL IN ABUNDANCE AT
THAT TIME...DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...CAPPING SHOULD
BE LIMITED SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE INTO DEAD PERIOD.  WILL STICK
WITH HIGH AND DRY FOR REST OF EXTENDED FORECAST.

ABOVE SCENARIO LEADS TO A TEMP FORECAST TREND NOT PRESENTLY
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL UNDERCUT SOUTHEAST AND PUMP
UP NORTHWEST YIELDING FAIRLY UNIFORM MAXES.  FWC/FAN APPROPO
WEDNESDAY AS SUN SHOULD PROPEL TEMPS BACK INTO 90S.

.GID...NONE.

DROZD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
940 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
0
0935 PM    3 W BLOOMINGTON           KS    1 INCH HAIL
07/10/00   OSBORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
944 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0935 PM    1 E ALTON                 KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
07/10/00   OSBORNE