Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2000

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...

THIS SEEMS TO BE A GOOD TIME TO EVALUATE THE PROS AND CONS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THINGS NOT THAT CLEAR CUT.

ON THE PLUS SIDE...WE HAVE A SURFACE LOW OVER MCK WITH AN
INVERTED TROF NORTH TO BETWEEN VTN AND ONL. THIS HAS NOT MADE A LOT
OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION TDA BUT SHOULD THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
SECOND FACTOR WHICH IS A WEAK WAVE THAT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB THIS EVENING. UPPER AIR SHOWS A SERIES OF VERY SUBTLE WAVES
WHICH ARE HARD TO PICK OUT AND NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR JULY. BOTH
ETA AND NGM HAVE FAIRLY HIGH 700 MB OMEGA VALUES WITH THIS WAVE.
PLENTY OF LOW TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS
AS FAR WEST AS GRI AND ODX WHILE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR KEEPS THE
SUBTROPICAL FEED GOING.  LAPS AND GOES SOUNDINGS GIVING CAPES OF 3 TO
4 THOUSAND J/KG IN NORTHERN PART OF CWA.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN...700 MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY HIGH
ALTHOUGH THIS DID NOT HAMPER DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST WHICH
DROPPED SOME DECENT RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN CWA LAST NIGHT.  CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION NUMBERS ALSO PRETTY HIGH...2 TO 4 HUNDRED J/KG...IN
NORTHERN CWA ATTM. BETTER INSTABILITY TO BE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
CWA. BEST MID LEVEL FORCING MAY BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF US AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ON THE SDAK/NEB BORDER AT PRESENT
ALTHOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH NEXT 24 HRS.  WIND FIELD NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND LCL AND LFC HEIGHTS LOOK
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY...WHILE WET BULB ZERO VALUES
PRETTY HIGH FOR HAIL SO IF WE GET ANY SEVERE BIGGEST THREAT SHOULD BE
HIGH WINDS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES
AND LIGHTER STEERING WINDS ALTHOUGH WONT INCLUDE MENTION IN ZONES AS
EXTENT OF COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD FOR US.

MONDAY FCST TO BE DRIVEN BY MOVEMENT OF FRONT...LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES
FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND
THE RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY PUT POPS IN MOST AREAS FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT TIME. TEMPS1 WILL ALSO VARY QUITE A BIT AND WILL KEEP IT HOT
IN THE SOUTH AND A BIT COOLER NORTH.

SIMILAR CONCERNS FOR TUES. WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY AND GO WITH IDEA
OF RIDGE RE-ASSERTING ITSELF.
.GID...NONE

EWALD