Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT...CORD CCF
206 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2000

ON THE SFC AT 18Z INVERTD TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MT...SFC LOW IN THE VC
OF KGCC IN NE WYO. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRETTY STRONG EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. DEW POINTS IN THE EAST ARE IN
THE 60S WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST.

18Z SOUNDING IN...PWAT IS UP TO 1.13 INCHES...LI -6...WE JUST BROKE
THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AT GGW. THE SOUNDING HAS A LOADED GUN LOOK TO
IT. SHEAR PROFILE IS OK...BUT IS NOT THAT GREAT. SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD
FROM 750MB UP.

MODELS...MESO ETA FROM YESTERDAY WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY. TODAY
LOOKING AT THE MESO ETA AND AVN FOR THE MAIN SOLUTION TO THE
FORECAST. CONVECTIVE VORT COUPLET COMING TOGETHER AGAIN FOR THE
WESTERN CWA TONIGHT. ELEMENTS AGAIN FOR CONVECTION TO THE SW
ADVECTING INTO CWA FROM THE SW...FORMING UP ANOTHER MCC FOR NEMONT
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC HAS A SVR TSTM WATCH
UP FOR MY WESTERN ZONES...WOULD EXPECT ONE FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN
THE FORM OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

H5 LOW CONTINUES TO KEEP NEMONT IN THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...THE EAST COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THE SVR STUFF AGAIN TOMORROW.

TEMPS...AROUND NEW MAV GUIDANCE CWA WIDE.

SVR WX...NEW SWODY1...GGW CWA IN THE MODERATE RISK...WILL HAVE A SPS
FOR SVR WX FOR AREA. WITH PLENTY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVIES GOING ON...WILL
GET THE HEADS UP OUT EARLY TONIGHT.                 PROTON

EXTENDED...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH STRONG CLOSED
LOWS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROF AND EJECTING NORTH INTO CANADA.
FIRST TWO HAVE DONE THE FUGIWARA ACROSS BC. MRF INDICATING THE LOW
OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT INTO ALBERTA THEN MOVE EAST. WITH
RIDGE AXIS MOVING FURTHER EAST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
DECREASE OVER REGION. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE MENTION WITH UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUING. EBERT

GGW TTTTT 060/080 055/084 055/086 056/087 056/085 947543/90333
GDV TTTTT 062/082 055/084 055/087 059/087 058/087 947543/90333

MTZ016>027-040230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIME FOR A LARGE SCALE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN AS THEY APPROACH
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

PERSONS IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SHOULD PREPARE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. PLEASE LISTEN FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS OR WARNING CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER IN YOUR AREA.

PROTON