Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...COUPLED
WITH LIFT ALONG AND OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.  UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW IN ITS
EASTWARD PROPAGATION...THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.  EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON  WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE EXTREME
EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT NEAR A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD...KILLEEN LINE AT
THIS TIME WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 25 MPH.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HILLSBORO TO KILLEEN.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.  FRIDAY WILL BE COOL IN
ALL AREAS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF RAIN.  EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WILL GO ABOVE NGM MOS ON POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD AND STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE IN PERIOD TWO.  WILL KEEP LOW TO NIL POPS IN PERIODS 3 AND 4.

DFW  46/52/43/63  9700   ACT  49/55/43/65  9700

IN THE EXTENDED...MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ADVECTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  BY SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTENSIFIES LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TUESDAY.

.FTW...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT ALL AREAS.

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.AVIATION...FRONT HAS PAST THE FORECAST AREAS TERMINALS LEAVING
LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND BRISK NW WIND. ELEVATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY
BUILDING WEST OF fACT AND WILL MOVE INTO ACT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RAIN EVENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY BUT BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE AROUND WACO. 82

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-170000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR THAT PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATED SOUTH OF
A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...TO ATHENS LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF TEMPLE...KILLEEN...AND WACO.

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAD REACHED A GAINESVILLE...MINERAL WELLS...
TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT MIDDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WERE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE REGION.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE INVADING COLD FRONT.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE IN THE WACO
AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH
ADEQUATE TURNING OF THE WIND WITH HEIGHT...TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

&&

FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)...
OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV
(NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU
(SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT
(WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).

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TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-170300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR THAT PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATED SOUTH OF
A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...TO ATHENS LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF TEMPLE...KILLEEN...AND WACO.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL RAPIDLY SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN ADVANCE OF THE INVADING COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
FURTHER DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE FROM WACO SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION. SPOTTERS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A KILLEEN TO CENTERVILLE LINE MAY BE ACTIVATED EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)...
OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV
(NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU
(SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT
(WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).

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